System and method for optimizing use of plug-in air conditioners and portable heaters

ABSTRACT

Thermostatic HVAC and other energy management controls that are connected to a computer network. For instance, remotely managed load switches incorporating thermostatic controllers inform an energy management system, to provide enhanced efficiency, and to verify demand response with plug-in air conditioners and heaters. At least one load control device at a first location comprises a temperature sensor and a microprocessor. The load control device is configured to connect or disconnect electrical power to the an attached air conditioner or heater, and the microprocessor is configured to communicate over a network. In addition, the load control device is physically separate from an air conditioner or heater but located inside the space conditioned by the air conditioner or heater.

CROSS-REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

Any and all applications for which a foreign or domestic priority claimis identified in the Application Data Sheet, or any correction thereto,are hereby incorporated by reference under 37 CFR 1.57.

BACKGROUND

1. Field

The present disclosure relates to the use of thermostatic HVAC and otherenergy management controls that are connected to a computer network.More specifically, the disclosure relates to the use of remotely managedload switches incorporating thermostatic controllers to inform an energymanagement system, to provide enhanced efficiency, and to verify demandresponse with plug-in air conditioners and heaters.

2. Description of the Related Art

Refrigerant-based air conditioning has been on the market for nearly 100years. Air conditioning systems may be thought of as belonging to one ofthree broad types: centralized systems, which locate the compressor andcondenser outside the conditioned space, and use ductwork to move heatout of the conditioned space; window mount air conditioners, which arecompletely self-contained in a single enclosure, plug into an outlet, donot use ductwork, and are generally sized to cool a single room; andsplit systems, which are roughly halfway between the other two in designin that they are usually two-box systems, with the compressor outsidethe conditioned space, but mount the heat exchanger directly in anoutside wall and thus also do not use ductwork.

Centralized systems tend to be most efficient in terms of cooling perunit of energy consumed, while window units tend to have the lowestmechanical efficiency, although there may be circumstances in which theeffective cost of running a window unit to cool a single occupied roomis lower than using a high-efficiency central air conditioner to coolthe entire house when only the one room is occupied.

As energy prices rise, more attention is being paid to ways of reducingenergy consumption. Because with most systems energy consumption isdirectly proportional to setpoint—that is, the further a given setpointdiverges from the balance point (the inside temperature assuming no HVACactivity) in a given house under given conditions, the higher energyconsumption will be to maintain temperature at that setpoint), energywill be saved by virtually any strategy that over a given time framelowers the average heating setpoint or raises the average coolingsetpoint.

One of the most important ways to increase the operational efficiency ofany heater or air conditioner is to make sure it is only used when andto the extent it is actually needed. Programmable thermostats have beenavailable for decades for central heating and cooling systems. Intheory, programmable thermostats can significantly reduce energy usewith these systems. In practice, savings often prove harder to achieve,for a variety of reasons. Those shortcomings are overcome by innovationsdisclosed in patent application Ser. Nos. 12/183,990; 12/183,949;12/211,733; and 12/211,690, the entirety of which are herebyincorporated herein by reference.

This system allows users to save significant energy with little or noloss of comfort. However, portable heaters and window air conditionersare not generally compatible with thermostats designed for centralsystems. Although some newer portable heaters and window airconditioners now include built-in thermostats, and future window airconditioners may have networking capabilities, there are millions ofwindow air conditioners in the world that do not have such controls orcommunications capabilities.

Specialized load control thermostats designed to control window airconditioners and portable heaters are commercially available. They aredesigned to be plugged into a wall outlet, and to have the portableheater or window mount air conditioner plugged into them in turn using aswitched outlet. These devices include a means for sensing temperature(such as a thermistor), means for choosing a desired thermal setpoint,and means for turning on and off the switched outlet. In the coolingcontext, for example, when the temperature as sensed by the internalsensor rises above the setpoint, the load controller powers the switchedoutlet, turning on the connected air conditioner. When the temperatureas sensed by the internal sensor has fallen sufficiently, the loadcontroller turns off power to the switched outlet, thereby switching offthe air conditioner.

Also commercially available are non-networked load control switches thatcan be controlled via wireless communications. They are also designed tobe plugged into an outlet, and to have an electrical device plugged intothem in turn using a switched outlet. Such devices include means tocommunicate wirelessly with other components and for turning on and offthe switched outlet.

Neither of these devices is likely to enable fully optimized energymanagement for a connected portable heater or window air conditioner.The challenge in using a conventional remote-controlled switch to managethe use of a window-mount air conditioner or space heater is that acritical data input required to optimize comfort and energy use is thetemperature of the space being conditioned by the attached airconditioner or heater. This issue is at least partially addressed byadding a means for sensing temperature to the load control device, andthus in a sense converting the load control switch into a line-voltagethermostat. However, making the load control device into aself-contained thermostat requires significant additional complexity(and thus expense), such as a complete user interface, and is alsolikely to yield unsatisfactory results for several reasons. First, thelocation of the load control device is dictated by the location of theoutlet into which the window-mount air conditioner must be connected.Whereas thermostats are normally situated in hallways or interior wallsat roughly chest or shoulder level for an average adult, and well awayfrom vents (which could cause the thermostat to shut off the HVAC systemprematurely), the location of the electrical outlet nearest the airconditioner is likely to be very high or very low on an exterior wall.This location will both make programming difficult and distort thetemperature readings obtained by the device, since the temperature in agiven room is likely to vary by several degrees from floor to ceiling,and be unduly influenced by sunlight, nearby windows, etc., as well asby the attached heater or air conditioner itself.

These drawbacks are largely avoided by combining the thermostaticcontrol capabilities of existing thermostatic load controllers with thecommunications capabilities of wireless communicating load controllers,and connecting the load control device via a network such as theInternet to a remote server that can manage the settings for the loadcontrol device and provide the ability to program settings from avariety of locations and using a variety of devices. This approach canalso make it possible to omit most or all of the aspects of a userinterface from the load control device itself, thereby reducing cost andcomplexity. This approach can also compensate for issues related to poorlocation of the load control device.

Although progress in residential HVAC control has been slow, tremendoustechnological change has come to the tools used for personalcommunication. When programmable thermostats were first offered,telephones were virtually all tethered by wires to a wall jack. But nowa large percentage of the population carries at least one mobile devicecapable of sending and receiving voice or data or even video (or acombination thereof) from almost anywhere by means of a wirelessnetwork. These devices create the possibility that a consumer can, withan appropriate mobile device and a network-enabled heater or airconditioner, control his or her heater or air conditioner even when awayfrom home. But systems that rely on active management decisions byconsumers are likely to yield sub-optimal energy management outcomes—inpart because consumers are unlikely to devote the attention and effortrequired to fully optimize energy use on a daily basis; in part becauseoptimization requires information and insights that are well beyond allbut the most sophisticated users.

Many new mobile devices now incorporate another significant newtechnology—the ability to geolocate the device (and thus, presumably,the user of the device). One method of locating such devices uses theGlobal Positioning System (GPS). The GPS system uses a constellation oforbiting satellites with very precise clocks to triangulate the positionof a device anywhere on earth based upon arrival times of signalsreceived from those satellites by the device. Another approach togeolocation triangulates using signals from multiple cell phone towers.Such systems can enable a variety of so-called “location based services”to users of enabled devices. These services are generally thought of asaids to commerce like pointing users to restaurants or gas stations,etc.

If the wall or window-mount air conditioner is plugged into a basiccommunicating load control device, it can be used to remotely turn offthe air conditioner. This approach can be effective as a load managementstrategy from the perspective of a utility or other actor concerned withthe health of the overall electric grid. Thus on hot summer afternoons,when air conditioning loads are highest, if the grid is threatened by asituation in which demand may exceed supply, a utility (or other partytasked with managing loads) may send a signal to switch off a largenumber of connected load controls, thereby reducing demand. Airconditioners represent a large percentage of such peak loads. Theability to address wall and window-mount air conditioners during suchpeak events could help to shed significant loads at critical times.

However, with existing solutions, this approach has serious drawbacks.Because there is no feedback loop between the load and the controller ofthe load, there is no way to take into account the conditions in theroom or the preferences of the occupants or even to validate that theair conditioner has been shut off. Thus there is little incentive forthe occupants of a given room to suffer significant personal discomfortin order to solve a grid-level problem. Indeed, the system arguablyencourages consumers to find ways to defeat the external control. Suchself-help could be as simple as removing the load controller from thecircuit, or plugging the load (the air conditioner) into a differentoutlet. With a simple communicating load controller without asophisticated feedback mechanism, there is no way for the remote mangerto know whether such measures have been taken.

It would be advantageous for the load controller strategies for windowand wall-mounted air conditioners (and in certain circumstances, spaceheaters) to take in to account the temperature conditions inside thespace being cooled by the air conditioner attached to the load controldevice. It would also be advantageous for the load control strategies totake into account whether or not the room that is cooled by the airconditioner is occupied.

It would also be advantageous for load controller switches for windowand wall-mounted air conditioners and plug-in heaters to include meansfor directly sensing occupancy of the conditioned space, and tocommunicate the occupancy status of the conditioned space to the remoteserver managing the operation of the attached window and wall-mountedair conditioners and plug-in heaters.

It would also be advantageous for load controller switches for windowand wall-mounted air conditioners and plug-in heaters to include meansfor sensing and measuring current drawn by those attached devices, andto communicate the current drawn by said devices to the remote servermanaging the operation of the attached window and wall-mounted airconditioners and plug-in heaters.

SUMMARY

In one embodiment, the invention comprises a portable heater or aself-contained air conditioner, such as a unit installed through awindow, a networked load-control switch, a local network connecting theload-control switch to a larger network such as the Internet, and aserver in bi-directional communication with such networked load-controlswitch and device.

In another embodiment, the invention comprises a portable heater or aself-contained air conditioner, such as a unit installed through awindow, a networked load-control switch, a local network connecting theload-control switch to a larger network such as the Internet, and one ormore geolocation-enabled mobile devices attached to the network, and aserver in bi-directional communication with such networked load-controlswitch and device. The server pairs each networked load-control switchwith one or more geolocation-enabled mobile devices which are determinedto be associated with the occupants of the conditioned space in whichthe networked load-control switch is located. The server logs theambient temperature sensed by each networked load-control switch vs.time and the switching of power to the attached space conditioningequipment by the networked load-control switch. The server also monitorsand logs the geolocation data related to the geolocation-enabled mobiledevices associated with each networked load-control switch. Based on thelocations and movement evidenced by geolocation data, the serverinstructs the networked load-control switch to change temperaturesettings between those optimized for occupied and unoccupied states atthe appropriate times based on the evolving geolocation data.

In another embodiment, the invention comprises a portable heater or aself-contained air conditioner, such as a unit installed through awindow, a networked load-control switch, a local network connecting theload-control switch to a larger network such as the Internet, and aserver in bi-directional communication with such networked load-controlswitch and device, and an occupancy sensor that detects the presence orabsence of occupants of the conditioned space.

In another embodiment, the invention comprises a portable heater or aself-contained air conditioner, such as a unit installed through awindow, a networked load-control switch, a local network connecting theload-control switch to a larger network such as the Internet, and aserver in bi-directional communication with such networked load-controlswitch and device, and a current sensor that measures the currentpassing through the device attached to the load control switch.

In one embodiment, a system for controlling plug-in air conditioners andheaters comprises at least one load control device at a first locationcomprising a temperature sensor and a microprocessor. The load controldevice is configured to connect or disconnect electrical power to theattached air conditioner or heater, and the microprocessor is configuredto communicate over a network.

One or more processors that receive measurements of outside temperaturesfrom at least one source other than the load control device and comparethe temperature measurements from the first location with themeasurements of outside temperatures. In addition, one or more databasesthat store at least the temperature measurements obtained from the firstlocation.

The load control device is also physically separate from the airconditioner or heater but located inside the space conditioned by theair conditioner or heater.

In an additional embodiment, the one or more databases are stored in acomputer located in the same structure as the load control device.Furthermore, the one or more databases are stored in a computer that isnot located in the same structure as the load control device. Stillfurther, the plug-in air conditioner is mounted through a window. In oneembodiment, the plug-in heater is a space heater.

In one embodiment, the load control device measures at least thetemperature inside the conditioned space. In another embodiment, theload control device measures the electrical current and/or voltagepassing through the load control device. In yet another embodiment, thedatabase obtains at least a measure of outside weather conditions via anetwork. In still another embodiment, the load control device isconfigured to sense occupancy of the conditioned space.

In a further embodiment, an apparatus for controlling a self-containedair conditioner or heater comprises a load control device comprising atemperature sensor and a microprocessor. The load control device isconfigured to connect or disconnect electrical power to the attached airconditioner or heater, and the microprocessor can communicate over anetwork.

A server is capable of receiving messages from and sending messages tothe load control device. Moreover, the load control device is locatedinside the space conditioned by the air conditioner or heater.

In yet another embodiment, the server is a computer located in the samestructure as the load control device. Still further, the server is notlocated in the same structure as the load control device. In a differentembodiment, the self-contained air conditioner is mounted through awindow and the self-contained heater is a space heater.

The load control device in one embodiment measures at least thetemperature inside the conditioned space. Also, the load control devicemeasures the electrical current and/or voltage passing through the loadcontrol device. Still further, the server obtains at least a measure ofoutside weather conditions via a network. In addition, the load controldevice is further configured to sense occupancy of the conditionedspace.

In one embodiment, an apparatus for optimizing the cooling of ahabitable space comprises an air conditioner and a load control devicecomprising a temperature sensor and a microprocessor. The load controldevice is configured to connect or disconnect electrical power to theattached air conditioner, and the load control device further configuredto communicate over a network.

A computer is capable of receiving messages from and sending messages tothe load control device and the load control device is located insidethe space conditioned by the air conditioner.

Moreover, the computer, in another embodiment is located in the samestructure as the load control device. Also, in a different embodiment,the computer is not located in the same structure as the load controldevice. In an additional embodiment, the air conditioner is mountedthrough a window. In a further embodiment, the load control devicemeasures at least the temperature inside the conditioned space. In astill further embodiment, the control device measures the electricalcurrent and/or voltage passing through the load control device. In yet afurther embodiment, the computer obtains at least a measure of outsideweather conditions via a network. In a different embodiment, the loadcontrol device is further configured to sense occupancy of theconditioned space.

In one embodiment, an apparatus for optimizing the heating of ahabitable space comprises a plug-in heater and a load control devicecomprising a temperature sensor and a microprocessor. The load controldevice is configured to connect or disconnect electrical power to theattached plug-in heater, and the load control device is furtherconfigured to communicate over a network.

A computer is capable of receiving messages from and sending messages tothe load control device and the load control device is located insidethe space conditioned by the plug-in heater.

In another embodiment, the computer is located in the same structure asthe load control device. In yet another embodiment, the computer is notlocated in the same structure as the load control device. In stillanother embodiment, the load control device measures at least thetemperature inside the conditioned space. In a different embodiment, theload control device measures the electrical current and/or voltagepassing through the control device. In a further embodiment, the serverobtains at least a measure of outside weather conditions via a network.In yet a further embodiment, the load control device is furtherconfigured to sense occupancy of the conditioned space.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 shows an example of an overall environment in which an embodimentof the invention may be used.

FIG. 2 shows a high-level illustration of the architecture of a networkshowing the relationship between the major elements of one embodiment ofthe subject invention.

FIGS. 3 a and 3 b show a representative load control device.

FIG. 4 shows a high-level schematic of the load control device used aspart of an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 5 shows one embodiment of the database structure used as part of anembodiment of the subject invention.

FIGS. 6 a and 6 b illustrate pages of a website that may be used with anembodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 7 is a flowchart showing the steps involved in the operation of oneembodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart that shows how the invention can be used to selectdifferent HVAC settings based upon its ability to identify which ofmultiple potential occupants is using the mobile device connected to thesystem.

FIGS. 9 a and 9 b show how comparing inside temperature against outsidetemperature and other variables permits calculation of dynamicsignatures.

FIG. 10 shows a flow chart for a high level version of the process ofcalculating the appropriate turn-on time in a given conditioned space.

FIG. 11 shows a more detailed flowchart listing the steps in the processof calculating the appropriate turn-on time in a given conditioned spacefor a just-in-time event.

FIGS. 12 a, 12 b, 12 c and 12 d show the steps shown in the flowchart inFIG. 11 in the form of a graph of temperature and time.

FIG. 13 shows a table of some of the data used by an embodiment of thesubject invention to predict temperatures.

FIG. 14 shows an embodiment of the subject invention as applied in aspecific conditioned space on a specific day.

FIG. 15 shows an embodiment of the subject invention as applied in adifferent specific conditioned space on a specific day.

FIGS. 16-1 and 16-2 show a table of predicted rates of change intemperature inside a given conditioned space for a range of temperaturedifferentials between inside and outside.

FIG. 17 shows how manual inputs can be recognized and recorded by anembodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 18 shows how an embodiment of the subject invention uses manualinputs to interpret manual overrides and make short-term changes inresponse thereto.

FIG. 19 shows how an embodiment of the subject invention uses manualinputs to make long-term changes to interpretive rules and to setpointscheduling.

FIG. 20 shows a flowchart illustrating the steps required to initiate acompressor delay adjustment event.

FIG. 21( a) through 21(c) illustrate how changes in compressor delaysettings affect HVAC cycling behavior by plotting time againsttemperature.

FIG. 22 is a flow chart illustrating the steps involved in generating ademand reduction event for a given subscriber.

FIG. 23 is a flow chart illustrating the steps involved in confirmingthat a demand reduction event has taken place.

FIG. 24 is a representation of the movement of messages and informationbetween the components of an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIGS. 25 a and 25 b show graphical representations of inside and outsidetemperatures in two different conditioned spaces, one with high thermalmass and one with low thermal mass.

FIGS. 26 a and 26 b show graphical representations of inside and outsidetemperatures in the same conditioned spaces as in FIGS. 25 a and 25 b,showing the cycling of the air conditioning systems in those conditionedspaces.

FIGS. 27 a and 27 b show graphical representations of inside and outsidetemperatures in the same conditioned space as in FIGS. 25 a and 26 a,showing the cycling of the air conditioning on two different days inorder to demonstrate the effect of a change in operating efficiency onthe parameters measured by the thermostat or load control device.

FIGS. 28 a and 28 b show the effects of employing a pre-cooling strategyin two different conditioned spaces.

FIGS. 29 a and 29 b show graphical representations of inside and outsidetemperatures in two different conditioned spaces in order to demonstratehow the system can correct for erroneous readings in one conditionedspace by referencing readings in another.

FIG. 30 is a flowchart illustrating the steps involved in calculatingthe effective thermal mass of a conditioned space using an embodiment ofthe subject invention.

FIG. 31 is a flowchart illustrating the steps involved in determiningwhether an HVAC system has developed a problem that impairs efficiencyusing an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 32 is a flowchart illustrating the steps involved in correcting forerroneous readings in one conditioned space by referencing readings inanother using an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 33 shows the conventional programming of a programmable thermostator load control device over a 24-hour period.

FIG. 34 shows the programming of a programmable thermostat or loadcontrol device over a 24-hour period using ramped setpoints.

FIG. 35 shows the steps required for the core function of the rampedsetpoint algorithm.

FIG. 36 shows a flowchart listing steps in the process of decidingwhether to implement the ramped setpoint algorithm using an embodimentof the subject invention.

FIG. 37 shows the browser as seen on the display of the computer used aspart of an embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 38 is a flowchart showing the steps involved in the operation ofone embodiment of the subject invention.

FIG. 39 is a flowchart that shows how an embodiment of the invention canbe used to select different HVAC settings based upon its ability toidentify which of multiple potential occupants is using the computerattached to the system.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

FIG. 1 shows an example of an overall environment 100 in which anembodiment of the invention may be used. The environment 100 includes aninteractive communication network 102 with computers 104 connectedthereto. Also connected to network 102 are mobile devices 105, and oneor more server computers 106, which store information and make theinformation available to computers 104 and mobile devices 105. Thenetwork 102 allows communication between and among the computers 104,mobile devices 105 and servers 106.

Presently preferred network 102 comprises a collection of interconnectedpublic and/or private networks that are linked to together by a set ofstandard protocols to form a distributed network. While network 102 isintended to refer to what is now commonly referred to as the Internet,it is also intended to encompass variations which may be made in thefuture, including changes additions to existing standard protocols. Italso includes various networks used to connect mobile and wirelessdevices, such as cellular networks.

When a user of an embodiment of the subject invention wishes to accessinformation on network 102 using computer 104 or mobile device 105, theuser initiates connection from his computer 104 or mobile device 105.For example, the user invokes a browser, which executes on computer 104or mobile device 105. The browser, in turn, establishes a communicationlink with network 102. Once connected to network 102, the user candirect the browser to access information on server 106.

One popular part of the Internet is the World Wide Web. The World WideWeb contains a large number of computers 104 and servers 106, whichstore HyperText Markup Language (HTML) documents capable of displayinggraphical and textual information. HTML is a standard coding conventionand set of codes for attaching presentation and linking attributes toinformational content within documents.

The servers 106 that provide offerings on the World Wide Web aretypically called websites. A website is often defined by an Internetaddress that has an associated electronic page. Generally, an electronicpage is a document that organizes the presentation of text graphicalimages, audio and video.

In addition to delivering content in the form of web pages, network 102may also be used to deliver computer applications that havetraditionally been executed locally on computers 104. This approach issometimes known as delivering hosted applications, or SaaS (software asa Service). Where a network connection is generally present, SaaS offersa number of advantages over the traditional software model: only asingle instance of the application has to be maintained, patched andupdated; users may be able to access the application from a variety oflocations, etc. Hosted applications may offer users most or all of thefunctionality of a local application without having to install theprogram, simply by logging into the application through a browser.

In addition to the Internet, the network 102 can comprise a wide varietyof interactive communication media. For example, network 102 can includelocal area networks, interactive television networks, telephonenetworks, wireless data systems, two-way cable systems, and the like.

In one embodiment, computers 104 and servers 106 are conventionalcomputers that are equipped with communications hardware such as modemor a network interface card. The computers include processors such asthose sold by Intel and AMD. Other processors may also be used,including general-purpose processors, multi-chip processors, embeddedprocessors and the like.

Computers 104 can also be microprocessor-controlled home entertainmentequipment including advanced televisions, televisions paired with homeentertainment/media centers, and wireless remote controls.

Computers 104 and mobile devices 105 may utilize a browser or otherapplication configured to interact with the World Wide Web or otherremotely served applications. Such browsers may include MicrosoftExplorer, Mozilla, Firefox, Opera or Safari. They may also includebrowsers or similar software used on handheld, home entertainment andwireless devices.

The storage medium may comprise any method of storing information. Itmay comprise random access memory (RAM), electronically erasableprogrammable read only memory (EEPROM), read only memory (ROM), harddisk, floppy disk, CD-ROM, optical memory, or other method of storingdata.

Computers 104 and 106 and mobile devices 105 may use an operating systemsuch as Microsoft Windows, Apple Mac OS, Linux, Unix or the like.

Computers 106 may include a range of devices that provide information,sound, graphics and text, and may use a variety of operating systems andsoftware optimized for distribution of content via networks.

Mobile devices 105 can also be handheld and wireless devices such aspersonal digital assistants (PDAs), cellular telephones and otherdevices capable of accessing the network. Mobile devices 105 can use avariety of means for establishing the location of each device at a giventime. Such methods may include the Global Positioning System (GPS),location relative to cellular towers, connection to specific wirelessaccess points, or other means

FIG. 2 illustrates in further detail the architecture of the specificcomponents connected to network 102 showing the relationship between themajor elements of one embodiment of the subject invention. Attached tothe network are load control devices 108 and computers 104 of varioususers. Connected to load control devices 108 are heaters and airconditioners and portable heaters 110. The heaters and air conditionersmay be conventional window-mount air conditioners, electric resistanceheaters, or other devices for generating or transferring heat into orout of a building. Each user is connected to the server 106 via wired orwireless connection such as Ethernet or a wireless protocol such as IEEE802.11, a gateway 110 that connects the computer and load control deviceto the Internet via a broadband connection such as a digital subscriberline (DSL), cellular radio or other form of broadband connection to theWorld Wide Web. The load control devices 108 may be connected locallyvia a wired connection such as Ethernet or Homeplug or other wirednetwork, or wirelessly via IEEE802.11, 802.15.4, or other wirelessnetwork. Server 106 contains the content to be served as web pages andviewed by computers 104, software to manage load control devices 108, aswell as databases containing information used by the servers.

Also attached to the Network may be cellular radio towers 120, or othermeans to transmit and receive wireless signals in communication withmobile devices 105. Such communication may use GPRS, GSM, CDMA, EvDO,EDGE or other protocols and technologies for connecting mobile devicesto a network.

FIGS. 3 a and 3 b show two views of one embodiment of the load controldevice 108. Load control device 108 includes a receptacle 202 the windowmount air conditioner or portable heater 110 is to be plugged into. Italso includes a corresponding plug 204 to be inserted into the walloutlet. Load control device 108 may also include means for sensingtemperature in the conditioned space, such as a thermistor, which is notdirectly visible from the outside, but may be located behind slots orholes 206 in the outer casing of the device in order to permit air tocirculate freely around. Load control device 108 may also include meansfor sensing motion 208 as a tool for detecting occupancy of the roomwhere the wall mount air conditioner is located. Load control device 108may also include buttons 210 or similar means to allow a user todirectly indicate temperature preferences. The load control device mayalso include a visual display, which could be a simple as a single LEDto indicate when the receptacle 202 is powered, or as sophisticated as afull-color display indicating temperatures, etc.

FIG. 4 shows a high-level block diagram of load control device 108 usedas part of the subject invention. Load control device 108 includestemperature sensing means 252, which may be a thermistor, thermal diodeor other means commonly used in the design of electronic thermostats.Load control device 108 includes a microprocessor 254, memory 256, andmay or may not include a display 258. Load control device 108 willinclude at least one relay or other switching means 262, which turnsoutlet 202 and thus air conditioner or heater 110 on an and off inresponse to a signal from the microprocessor. To allow the load controldevice to communicate bi-directionally with other local devices and/orcomputer network, the load control device 108 also includes means 264and (in some cases) antenna 266 to connect the load control device 108to a local computer or to a wireless network. Such means could be in theform of Ethernet, wireless protocols such as IEEE 802.11, IEEE 802.15.4,Bluetooth, cellular systems such as CDMA, GSM and GPRS, or otherwireless protocols. The load control device 108 may also includecontrols such as buttons 210 that allow users to change settingsdirectly at the load control device 108, but such controls are notnecessary to allow the load control device to function.

In the simplest case, load control device 108 can act as a conventionalthermostat for a connected air conditioner or electric heater. Once auser has specified a given setpoint, temperature sensing means 252 isused to determine the air temperature in the conditioned space. In theair conditioning context, when the sensed temperature rises above theselected comfort range, microprocessor 254 will cause relay 262 toclose, thereby supplying power to the attached air conditioner or heater110. However, considerably greater utility will be enabled if the loadcontrol device 108 is connected to a network. Load control device 108can also act as a router, hub, switch or gateway for the purpose ofwirelessly connecting other devices to the same network as load controldevice 108 and to network 102, server 106, remote server 106 and/ormobile devices 105.

When load control device 108 is connected to a network, users will beable to manage the operation of the load control device through eithersoftware run locally on computer 104 or remotely on a server connectedto the load control device via a network such as the Internet. When thesoftware runs on a remote server, the data used to optimize theoperation of the air conditioner is stored on one or more servers 106within one or more databases. As shown in FIG. 5, the overall databasestructure 300 may include temperature database 400, thermostat settingsdatabase 500, energy bill database 600, HVAC hardware database 700,weather database 800, user database 900, transaction database 1000,product and service database 1100, user location database 1200 and suchother databases as may be needed to support these and additionalfeatures.

Users of load control devices may create personal accounts. Each user'saccount will store information in database 900, which tracks variousattributes relative to users of the site. Such attributes may includethe make and model of the specific HVAC equipment used in associationwith the load control device; the age and square footage of theconditioned space, the solar orientation of the conditioned space, thelocation of the lad control device in the conditioned space, the user'spreferred temperature settings, whether the user is a participant in ademand response program, etc.

User personal accounts may also associate one or more mobile deviceswith such personal accounts. For mobile devices with the capability forgeopositioning awareness, these personal accounts will have the abilitylog such positioning data over time in database 1200.

In one embodiment, a background application installed on mobile device105 shares geopositioning data for the mobile device with theapplication running on server 106 that logs such data. Based upon thisdata, server 106 runs software that interprets the data (as described inmore detail below). Server 106 may then, depending on context, (a)transmit a signal to load control device 108 changing the setpoint theload control device is seeking to maintain because occupancy has beendetected at a time when the system did not expect occupancy (oralternately, because occupancy was expected but has not been detected);or (b) transmit a message to mobile device 105 that asks the user if theserver should change the current setpoint, alter the overall programmingof the system based upon a new occupancy pattern, etc. Such signallingactivity may be conducted via email, text message, pop-up alerts, voicemessaging, or other means.

FIGS. 6 a and 6 b illustrate a website that may be provided to assistusers to interact with the subject invention. The website will permitusers to perform through the web browser substantially all of theprogramming functions traditionally performed directly at conventionalphysical thermostat, such as temperature set points, the time at whichthe load control device should be at each set point, etc. Preferably thewebsite will also allow users to accomplish more advanced tasks such asallow users to program in vacation settings for times when the airconditioner or heater may be turned off or run at more economicalsettings, and to set macros that will allow changing the settings of thetemperature for all periods with a single gesture such as a mouse click.As shown in FIG. 6 a, screen 351 of website 350 displays currenttemperature 352 as sensed by load control device 108. Clicking on “up”arrow 354 raises the setpoint 358; clicking the “down” arrow 206 lowerssetpoint 208. Screen 351 may also convey information about the outsideweather conditions, such as a graphic representation 360 of the sun,clouds, etc. In conditioned spaces with multiple load control devices,screen 351 may allow users to select different devices to adjust ormonitor. Users will be able to use screen 351 by selecting, for example,master bedroom load control device 362, living room load control device364, game room load control device 366, or basement load control device368.

As shown in FIG. 6 b, screen 370 allows users to establish programmingschedules. Row 372 shows a 24-hour period. Programming row 374 displaysvarious programming periods and when they are scheduled, such as “away”setting 376, which begins at approximately 8 AM and runs untilapproximately 5:30 PM. When the away setting 376 is highlighted, theuser can adjust the starting time and ending time for the setting bydragging the beginning time 378 to the left to choose an earlier starttime, and dragging it to the right to make it later. Similarly, the usercan drag ending time 380 to the left to make it earlier, and to theright to make it later. While away setting 376 is highlighted, the usercan also change heating setpoint 382 by clicking on up arrow 384 or downarrow 386, and cooling setpoint 388 by clicking on up arrow 390 or downarrow 392. The user can save the program by clicking on save button 394.

If load control device 108 includes a motion sensor or other means ofdetecting occupancy, this information can be used to change the state ofthe load control device and associated heating or cooling systemsdirectly, and that information can also be transmitted to remote server106. This approach can effectively react to occupancy changes in a givenspace. However, a more involved process can actually anticipate someoccupancy changes, and does not require a direct occupancy sensor.

FIG. 7 is a high-level flowchart showing the steps involved in theoperation of one embodiment of the subject invention for the purpose ofadjusting the setting of the load control device 108 for occupancy. Instep 1302, mobile device 105 transmits geopositioning information toserver 106 via the Internet. In step 1304 the server compares the latestgeopositioning data point to previous data points in order to determinewhether a change in location or vector of movement has occurred. In step1306 the server evaluates the geopositioning data in order to determinewhether the temperature settings for the load control device 108associated with the mobile device 105 should be optimized for anunoccupied state, or for an occupied state in light of the movement (orlack thereof) in the geopositioning data. If the server 106 determinesthat the load control device 108 should be in occupied or “home” mode,then in step 1308 the server queries database 300 to determine whetherload control device 108 is already set for home or away mode. If loadcontrol device 108 is already in home mode, then the applicationterminates for a specified interval. If the HVAC settings then in effectare intended to apply when the conditioned space is unoccupied, then instep 1310 the application will retrieve from database 300 the user'sspecific preferences for how to handle this situation. If the user haspreviously specified (at the time that the program was initially set upor subsequently modified) that the user prefers that the systemautomatically change settings under such circumstances, the applicationthen proceeds to step 1316, in which it changes the programmed setpointfor the load control device to the setting intended for occupancy. Ifthe user has previously specified that the application should not makesuch changes without further user input, then in step 1312 theapplication transmits a command to the location specified by the user(generally mobile device 105) directing the device display a messageinforming the user that the current setting assumes an unoccupied house,apartment or room and asking the user to choose whether to either keepthe current settings or revert to the pre-selected setting for anoccupied state. If the user selects to retain the current setting, thenin step 1318 the application will write to database 300 the fact thatthe user has so elected and terminate. If the user elects to change thesetting, then in step 1316 the application transmits the revisedsetpoint to the load control device. In step 1318 the application writesthe updated setting information to database 300.

If the server 106 determines in step 1306 that the conditioned spaceshould be in unoccupied or away mode, then in step 1350 the serverqueries database 300 to determine whether load control device 108 is setfor set for home or away mode. If load control device 108 is already inhome mode, then the application terminates for a specified interval. Ifthe settings then in effect are intended to apply when the conditionedspace is occupied, then in step 1352 the application will retrieve fromdatabase 300 the user's specific preferences for how to handle thissituation. If the user has previously specified (at the time that theprogram was initially set up or subsequently modified) that the userprefers that the system automatically change settings under suchcircumstances, the application then proceeds to step 1358, in which itchanges the programmed setpoint for the load control device to thesetting intended for the conditioned space when unoccupied. If the userhas previously specified that the application should not make suchchanges without further user input, then in step 1354 the applicationtransmits a command to the location specified by the user (generallymobile device 105) directing the device display a message informing theuser that the current setting assumes an unoccupied state and asking theuser to choose whether to either keep the current settings or revert tothe pre-selected setting for an occupied conditioned space. If the userselects to retain the current setting, then in step 1318 the applicationwill write to database 300 the fact that the user has so elected andterminate. If the user elects to change the setting, then in step 1316the application transmits the revised setpoint to the load controldevice. In step 1318 the application writes the updated settinginformation to database 300. If load control device 108 is already inaway mode, the program ends. If it was in home mode, then in step 1314server 108 initiates a state change to put load control device 108 inaway mode. In either case, the server then in step 1316 writes the statechange to database 300. In each case the server can also send a messageto the person who owns the mobile device requesting, confirming orannouncing the state change.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart that shows one process by which the invention canbe used to select different temperature settings based upon its abilityto identify which of multiple potential occupants is using the mobiledevice attached to the system. The process shown assumes (a) a statichierarchy of temperature preferences as between multiple occupants: thatis, that for a given conditioned space/structure, mobile user #1'spreferences will always control the outcome if mobile user #1 ispresent, that mobile user #2's preferences yield to #1's, but alwaysprevail over user #3, etc; and (b) that there are no occupants toconsider who are not associated with a mobile device. Other heuristicsmay be applied in order to account for more dynamic interactions ofpreferences.

In step 1402 server 106 retrieves the most recent geospatial coordinatesfrom the mobile device 105 associated with mobile user #1. In step 1404server 106 uses current and recent coordinates to determine whethermobile user #1's “home” settings should be applied. If server 106determines that User #1's home settings should be applied, then in step1406 server 106 applies the correct setting and transmits it to the loadcontrol device(s). In step 1408, server 106 writes to database 300 thegeospatial information used to adjust the programming. If afterperforming step 1404, the server concludes that mobile user #1's “home”settings should not be applied, then in step 1412 server 106 retrievesthe most recent geospatial coordinates from the mobile device 105associated with mobile user #2. In step 1414 server 106 uses current andrecent coordinates to determine whether mobile user #2's “home” settingsshould be applied. If server 106 determines that User #2's home settingsshould be applied, then in step 1416 server 106 applies the correctsetting and transmits it to the load control device(s). In step 1408,server 106 writes to database 300 the geospatial and other relevantinformation used to adjust the programming. If after performing step1414, the server concludes that mobile user #2's “home” settings shouldnot be applied, then in step 1422 server 106 retrieves the most recentgeospatial coordinates from the mobile device 105 associated with mobileuser #N. In step 1424 server 106 uses current and recent coordinates todetermine whether mobile user #N's “home” settings should be applied. Ifserver 106 determines that User #N's home settings should be applied,then in step 1426 server 106 applies the correct setting and transmitsit to the load control device(s). In step 1408, server 106 writes todatabase 300 the geospatial information used to adjust the programming.

If none of the mobile devices associated with a given home or otherstructure report geospatial coordinates consistent with occupancy, thenin step 1430 the server instructs the load control device(s) to switchto or maintain the “away” setting.

The instant invention is capable of delivering additional benefits interms of increased comfort and efficiency. In addition to using thesystem to allow better control of an attached heater or air conditioner,which relies primarily on communication running from the server to theload control device, bi-directional communication will also allow theload control device 108 to regularly measure and send to the serverinformation about the temperature in the space conditioned by the heateror air conditioner controlled by the load control device. By comparingoutside temperature, inside temperature, temperature settings, cyclingbehavior of the attached heater or air conditioner, and other variables,the system will be capable of numerous diagnostic and controllingfunctions beyond those of a standard thermostat.

For example, FIG. 9 a shows a graph of inside temperature, outsidetemperature and air conditioner activity for a 24-hour period. Whenoutside temperature 1502 increases, inside temperature 1504 follows, butwith some delay because of the thermal mass of the conditioned space,unless the air conditioning 1506 operates to counteract this effect.When the air conditioning turns on, the inside temperature staysconstant (or rises at a much lower rate or even falls) despite therising outside temperature. In this example, frequent and heavy use ofthe air conditioning results in only a very slight temperature increaseinside the house of 4 degrees, from 72 to 76 degrees, despite theincrease in outside temperature from 80 to 100 degrees.

FIG. 9 b shows a graph of the same conditioned space on the same day,but assumes that the air conditioning is turned off from noon to 7 PM.As expected, the inside temperature 1504 a rises with increasing outsidetemperatures 1502 for most of that period, reaching 88 degrees at 7 PM.Because server 106 logs the temperature readings from inside each house(whether once per minute or over some other interval), as well as thetiming and duration of air conditioning cycles, database 300 willcontain a history of the thermal performance of the conditioned space.That performance data will allow the server 106 to calculate aneffective thermal mass for each conditioned space—that is, the speedwith which the temperature inside a given conditioned space will changein response to changes in outside temperature. Because the server willalso log these inputs against other inputs including time of day,humidity, etc. the server will be able to predict, at any given time onany given day, the rate at which inside temperature should change forgiven inside and outside temperatures.

The ability to predict the rate of change in inside temperature in agiven conditioned space under varying conditions may be applied by ineffect holding the desired future inside temperature as a constraint andusing the ability to predict the rate of change to determine when theheater or air conditioner system must be turned on in order to reach thedesired temperature at the desired time. The ability of a load controldevice to vary the turn-on time of an attached air conditioner or heaterin order to achieve a setpoint with minimum energy use may be thought ofas Just In Time (JIT) optimization.

FIG. 10 shows a flowchart illustrating the high-level process forcontrolling a just-in-time (JIT) event. In step 1512, the serverdetermines whether a specific load control device 108 is scheduled torun the preconditioning program. If not, the program terminates. If itso scheduled, then in step 1514 the server retrieves the predeterminedtarget time when the preconditioning is intended to have been completed(TT). Using TT as an input, in step 1516 the server then determines thetime at which the computational steps required to program thepreconditioning event will be performed (ST). In step 1518, performed atstart time ST, the server begins the process of actually calculating therequired parameters, as discussed in greater detail below. Then in 1520specific setpoint changes are transmitted to the load control device sothat the temperature inside the conditioned space may be appropriatelychanged as intended.

FIG. 11 shows a more detailed flowchart of the process. In step 1532,the server retrieves input parameters used to create a JIT event. Theseparameters include the maximum time allowed for a JIT event for loadcontrol device 108 (MTI); the target time the system is intended to hitthe desired temperature (TT); and the desired inside temperature at TT(TempTT). It is useful to set a value for MTI because, for example, itwill be reasonable to prevent the HVAC system from running apreconditioning event if it would be expected to take 8 hours, whichmight be prohibitively expensive.

In step 1534, the server retrieves data used to calculate theappropriate start time with the given input parameters. This dataincludes a set of algorithmic learning data (ALD), composed of historicreadings from the load control device, together with associated weatherdata, such as outside temperature, solar radiation, humidity, wind speedand direction, etc; together with weather forecast data for the subjectlocation for the period when the algorithm is scheduled to run (theweather forecast data, or WFD). The forecasting data can be as simple asa listing of expected temperatures for a period of hours subsequent tothe time at which the calculations are performed, to more detailedtables including humidity, solar radiation, wind, etc. Alternatively, itcan include additional information such as some or all of the kinds ofdata collected in the ALD.

In step 1536, the server uses the ALD and the WFD to create predictiontables that determine the expected rate of change or slope of insidetemperature for each minute of air conditioner or heater cycle time (ΔT)for the relevant range of possible pre-existing inside temperatures andoutside climatic conditions. An example of a simple prediction table isillustrated in FIG. 13.

In step 1538, the server uses the prediction tables created in step1106, combined with input parameters TT and Temp (TT) to determine thetime at which slope ΔT intersects with predicted initial temperature PT.The time between PT and TT is the key calculated parameter: thepreconditioning time interval, or PTI.

In step 1540, the server checks to confirm that the time required toexecute the pre-conditioning event PTI does not exceed the maximumparameter MTI. If PTI exceeds MTI, the scheduling routine concludes andno ramping setpoints are transmitted to the load control device.

If the system is perfect in its predictive abilities and its assumptionsabout the temperature inside the conditioned space are completelyaccurate, then in theory the load control device can simply bereprogrammed once per JIT event—at time PT, the load control device cansimply be reprogrammed to Temp (TT). However, there are drawbacks tothis approach. First, if the server has been overly conservative in itspredictions as to the possible rate of change in temperature caused bythe heating or air conditioning system, the inside temperature willreach TT too soon, thus wasting energy and at least partially defeatingthe purpose of running the preconditioning routine in the first place.If the server is too optimistic in its projections, there will be no wayto catch up, and the conditioned space will not reach Temp(TT) untilafter TT. Thus it would be desirable to build into the system a meansfor self-correcting for slightly conservative start times withoutexcessive energy use. Second, the use of setpoints as a proxy for actualinside temperatures in the calculations is efficient, but can beinaccurate under certain circumstances. In the winter (heating) context,for example, if the actual inside temperature is a few degrees above thesetpoint (which can happen when outside temperatures are warm enoughthat the conditioned space's natural “set point” is above thetemperature setting), then setting the load control device to Temp(TT)at time PT will almost certainly lead to reaching TT too soon as well.

The currently preferred solution to both of these possible inaccuraciesis to calculate and program a series of intermediate settings betweenTemp(PT) and Temp(TT) that are roughly related to ΔT.

Thus if MTI is greater than PTI, then in step 1542 the server calculatesthe schedule of intermediate setpoints and time intervals to betransmitted to the load control device. Because thermostatic controllerscannot generally be programmed with steps of less than 1 degree F., ΔTis quantized into discrete interval data of at least 1 degree F. each.For example, if Temp(PT) is 65 degrees F., Temp(TT) is 72 degrees F.,and PT is 90 minutes, the load control device might be programmed to beset at 66 for 10 minutes, 67 for 12 minutes, 68 for 15 minutes, etc. Theserver may optionally limit the process by assigning a minimumprogramming interval (e.g., at least ten minutes between setpointchanges) to avoid frequent switching of the HVAC system, which canreduce accuracy because air conditioners often include a compressordelay circuit, which may prevent quick corrections. The duration of eachindividual step may be a simple arithmetic function of the time PTIdivided by the number of whole-degree steps to be taken; alternatively,the duration of each step may take into account second-orderthermodynamic effects relating to the increasing difficulty of “pushing”the temperature inside a conditioned space further from its naturalsetpoint given outside weather conditions, etc. (that is, the fact thaton a cold winter day it may take more energy to move the temperatureinside the conditioned space from 70 degrees F. to 71 than it does tomove it from 60 degrees to 61).

In step 1544, the server schedules setpoint changes calculated in step1112 for execution by the load control device.

With this system, if actual inside temperature at PT is significantlyhigher than Temp(PT), then the first changes to setpoints will have noeffect (that is, the load control device will not turn on the heater orair conditioner), and the heater, or air conditioner system will notbegin using energy, until the appropriate time, as shown in FIG. 12.Similarly, if the server has used conservative predictions to generateΔT, and the heater or air conditioner system runs ahead of the predictedrate of change, the incremental changes in setpoint will delay furtherincreases until the appropriate time in order to again minimizeunnecessary energy use.

FIG. 12( a) through 12(d) shows the steps in the preconditioning processas a graph of temperature and time. FIG. 12( a) shows step 1532, inwhich inputs target time TT 1552, target temperature Temp(TT) 1554,maximum conditioning interval MTI 1556 and the predicted insidetemperature during the period of time the preconditioning event islikely to begin Temp(PT) 1558 are retrieved.

FIG. 12( b) shows the initial calculations performed in step 1538, inwhich expected rate of change in temperature ΔT 1560 inside theconditioned space is generated from the ALD and WFD using Temp(TT) 1554at time TT 1552 as the endpoint.

FIG. 12( c) shows how in step 1538 ΔT 1560 is used to determine starttime PT 1562 and preconditioning time interval PTI 1564. It also showshow in step 1540 the server can compare PTI with MTI to determinewhether or not to instantiate the pre-conditioning program for the loadcontrol device.

FIG. 12( d) shows step 1542, in which specific ramped setpoints 1566 aregenerated. Because of the assumed thermal mass of the system, actualinside temperature at any given time will not correspond to setpointsuntil some interval after each setpoint change. Thus initial rampedsetpoint 1216 may be higher than Temp(PT) 1558, for example.

FIG. 13 shows an example of the types of data that may be used by theserver in order to calculate ΔT 1560. Such data may include insidetemperature 1572, outside temperature 1574, cloud cover 1576, humidity1578, barometric pressure 1580, wind speed 1582, and wind direction1584.

Each of these data points should be captured at frequent intervals. Inthe preferred embodiment, as shown in FIG. 13, the interval is onceevery 60 seconds.

FIG. 14 shows an actual application of JIT conditioning in the heatingcontext. Temperature and setpoints are plotted for the 4-hour periodfrom 4 AM to 8 AM with temperature on the vertical axis and time on thehorizontal axis. The winter nighttime setpoint 1592 is 60 degrees F.;the morning setpoint temperature 1594 is 69 degrees F. The outsidetemperature 1596 is approximately 45 degrees F. The target time TT 1598for the setpoint change to morning setting is 6:45 AM. In the absence ofthe subject invention, the user could program the load control device tochange to the new setpoint at 6:45, but there is an inherent delaybetween a setpoint change and the response of the temperature inside theconditioned space. (In this conditioned space on this day, the delay isapproximately fifty minutes.) Thus if the occupants truly desired toachieve the target temperature at the target time, some anticipationwould be necessary. The amount of anticipation required depends uponnumerous variables, as discussed above.

After calculating the appropriate slope ΔT 1560 by which to ramp insidetemperature in order to reach the target as explained above, the servertransmits a series of setpoints 1566 to the load control device 108because the load control device is presumed to only accept discreteintegers as program settings. (If a load control device is capable ofaccepting finer settings, as in the case of some thermostats designed tooperate in regions in which temperature is generally denoted inCentigrade rather than Fahrenheit, which accept settings in half-degreeincrements, tighter control may be possible.) In any event, in thecurrently preferred embodiment of the subject invention, programmingchanges are quantized such that the frequency of setpoint changes isbalanced between the goal of minimizing network traffic and thefrequency of changes made on the one hand and the desire for accuracy onthe other. Balancing these considerations may result in some cases ineither more frequent changes or in larger steps between settings. Asshown in FIG. 14, the setpoint “stairsteps” from 60 degrees F. to 69degrees F. in nine separate setpoint changes over a period of 90minutes.

Because the inside temperature 1599 when the setpoint management routinewas instantiated at 5:04 AM was above the “slope” and thus above thesetpoint, the heater was not triggered and no energy was usedunnecessarily heating the conditioned space before such energy use wasrequired. Actual energy usage does not begin until 5:49 AM.

FIG. 15 shows application of the subject invention in a differentstructure during a similar four-hour interval. In FIG. 15, the predictedslope ΔT 1560 is less conservative relative to the actual performance ofthe conditioned space and the heater, so there is no off cycling duringthe preconditioning event—the HVAC system turns on at approximately 4:35AM and stays on continuously during the event. The conditioned spacereaches the target temperature Temp(TT) roughly two minutes prior totarget time TT.

FIGS. 16-1 and 16-2 show a simple prediction table. The first column1602 lists a series of differentials between outside and insidetemperatures. Thus when the outside temperature is 14 degrees and theinside temperature is 68 degrees, the differential is −54 degrees; whenthe outside temperature is 94 degrees and the inside temperature is 71degrees, the differential is 13 degrees. The second column 1604 liststhe predicted rate of change in inside temperature ΔT 1210, assumingthat the heater is running, in terms of degrees Fahrenheit of change perhour. A similar prediction table will be generated for predicted ratesof change when the air conditioner is on; additional tables may begenerated that predict how temperatures will change when the heater orair conditioner is off.

Alternatively, the programming of the just-in-time setpoints may bebased not on a single rate of change for the entire event, but on a morecomplex multivariate equation that takes into account the possibilitythat the rate of change may be different for events of differentdurations.

The method for calculating start times may also optionally take intoaccount not only the predicted temperature at the calculated start time,but may incorporate measured inside temperature data from immediatelyprior to the scheduled start time in order to update calculations, ormay employ more predictive means to extrapolate what inside temperaturebased upon outside temperatures, etc.

An additional capability offered by the instant invention is the abilityto adapt the programming of the load control device based upon thenatural behavior of occupants. Because the instant invention is capableof recording the setpoint actually used at a connected load controldevice over time, it is also capable of inferring manual setpointchanges (as, for example, entered by pushing the “up” or “down” arrow onthe control panel of the device) even when such overrides of the pre-setprogram are not specifically recorded as such by the load controldevice.

In order to adapt programming to take into account the manual overridesentered into load control device 108 using input devices such as buttons210, it is first necessary to determine when a manual override has infact occurred. Most thermostats, including many two-way communicatingthermostats, do not record such inputs locally, and neither recognizenor transmit the fact that a manual override has occurred. Furthermore,in a system as described herein, frequent changes in setpoints may beinitiated by algorithms running on the server, thereby making itimpossible to infer a manual override from the mere fact that thesetpoint has changed. It is therefore necessary to deduce the occurrenceof such events from the data that the subject invention does have accessto.

FIG. 17 illustrates the currently preferred method for detecting theoccurrence of a manual override event. In step 1702, the serverretrieves the primary data points used to infer the occurrence of amanual override from one or more databases in overall database structure300. The data should include each of the following: for the most recentpoint at which it can obtain such data (time0) the actual setpoint asrecorded at the load control device 108 at (A0); for the pointimmediately prior to time0 (time−1), the actual setpoint recorded at theload control device (A−1); for time0 the setpoint as scheduled by server106 according to the basic setpoint programming (S0), and for time−1 thesetpoint as scheduled by server 106 according to the standard setpointprogramming (S−1). In step 1704, the server retrieves any additionalautomated setpoint changes C that have been scheduled for the loadcontrol device by server 106 at time0. Such changes may includealgorithmic changes intended to reduce energy consumption, etc. In step1706 the server calculates the difference (dA) between A0 and A−1; forexample, if the actual setpoint is 67 degrees at T−1 and 69 at T0, dA is+2; if the setpoint at T−1 is 70 and the setpoint at T0 is 66, dA is −4.In step 1708, the server performs similar steps in order to calculatedS, the difference between S0 and S−1. This is necessary because, forexample, the setpoint may have been changed because the server itselfhad just executed a change, such as a scheduled change from “away” to“home” mode. In step 1710 the server evaluates and sums all activealgorithms and other server-initiated strategies to determine their neteffect on setpoint at time0. For example, if one algorithm has increasedsetpoint at time0 by 2 degrees as a short-term energy savings measure,but another algorithm has decreased the setpoint by one degree tocompensate for expected subjective reactions to weather conditions, thenet algorithmic effect sC is +1 degree.

In step 1712, the server calculates the value for M, where M is equal tothe difference between actual setpoints dA, less the difference betweenscheduled setpoints dS, less the aggregate of algorithmic change sC. Instep 1714 the server evaluates this difference. If the difference equalszero, the server concludes that no manual override has occurred, and theroutine terminates. But if the difference is any value other than zero,then the server concludes that a manual override has occurred. Thus instep 1716 the server logs the occurrence and magnitude of the overrideto one or more databases in overall database structure 300.

The process of interpreting a manual override is shown in FIG. 18. Step1802 is the detection of an override, as described in detail in FIG. 17.In step 1804 the server retrieves the stored rules for the subject loadcontrol device 108. Such rules may include weather and time-relatedinferences such as “if outside temperature is greater than 85 degreesand inside temperature is more than 2 degrees above setpoint and manualoverride lowers setpoint by 3 or more degrees, then revert to originalsetpoint in 2 hours,” or “if heating setpoint change is scheduled from“away” to “home” within 2 hours after detected override, and overrideincreases setpoint by at least 2 degrees, then change to “home”setting,” or the like. In step 1806 the server retrieves contextual datarequired to interpret the manual override. Such data may include currentand recent weather conditions, current and recent inside temperatures,etc. This data is helpful because it is likely that manual overrides areat least in part deterministic: that is, that they may often beexplained by such contextual data, and that such understanding canpermit anticipation of the desire on the part of the occupants tooverride and to adjust programming accordingly, so as to anticipate andobviate the need for such changes. The amount of data may be for aperiod of a few hours to as long as several days, or more. Recent datamay be more heavily weighted than older data in order to assure rapidadaptation to situations in which manual overrides represent stablechanges such as changes in work schedules, etc. In step 1808 the serverretrieves any relevant override data from the period preceding thespecific override being evaluated that has not yet been evaluated by andincorporated into the long-term programming and rules engines asdescribed below in FIG. 19. In step 1810 the server evaluates theoverride and determines which rule, if any, should be applied as aresult of the override. In step 1812 the server determines whether toalter the current setpoint as a result of applying the rules in step1810. If no setpoint change is indicated, then the routine ends. If asetpoint change is indicated, then in step 1814 the server transmits thesetpoint change to the load control device for execution, and in step1816 it records that change to one or more databases in overall databasestructure 300.

In order to ensure that both the stored rules for interpreting manualoverrides and the programming itself continue to most accurately reflectthe intentions of the occupants, the server can periodically review boththe rules used to interpret overrides and the setpoint schedulingemployed. FIG. 19 shows the steps used to incorporate manual overridesinto the long-term rules and setpoint schedule. In step 1902 the serverretrieves the stored programming for a given load control device 108 aswell as the rules for interpreting overrides for that load controldevice. In step 1904 the server retrieves the recent override data asrecorded in FIGS. 17 and 18 to be evaluated for possible revisions tothe rules and the programming. In step 1906 the server retrieves thecontextual data regarding overrides retrieved in step 1904 (Because theprocess illustrated in FIG. 19 is not presently expected to be executedas a real-time process, and is expected to be run anywhere from once perday to once per month, the range and volume of contextual data to beevaluated is likely to be greater than in the process illustrated inFIG. 18). In step 1908 the server interprets the overrides in light ofthe existing programming schedule, rules for overrides, contextual data,etc. In step 1910 the server determines whether, as a result of thoseoverrides as interpreted, the rules for interpreting manual overridesshould be revised. If the rules are not to be revised, the server movesto step 1914. If the rules are to be revised, then in step 1912 theserver revises the rules and the new rules are stored in one or moredatabases in overall database structure 300. In step 1914 the serverdetermines whether any changes to the baseline programming for the loadcontrol device should be revised. If not, the routine terminates. Ifrevisions are warranted, then in step 1916 the server retrieves fromdatabase 900 the permissions the server has to make autonomous changesto settings. If the server has been given permission to make theproposed changes, then in step 1918 the server revises the load controldevice's programming and writes the changes to one or more databases inoverall database structure 300. If the server has not been authorized tomake such changes autonomously, then in step 1920 the server transmitsthe recommendation to change settings to the customer in the mannerpreviously specified by the customer, such as email, changes to thecustomer's home page as displayed on website 200, etc.

Additional means of implementing the instant invention may be achievedusing variations in system architecture. For example, much or even allof the work being accomplished by remote server 106 may also be done byload control device 108 if that device has sufficient processingcapabilities, memory, etc. Alternatively, these steps may be undertakenby a local processor such as a local personal computer, or by adedicated appliance having the requisite capabilities, such as gateway112.

An additional way in which the instant invention can reduce energyconsumption with minimal impact on comfort is to use the load controldevice to vary the turn-on delay enforced for an attached airconditioner after the air conditioner's compressor is turned off.Compressor delay is usually used to protect compressors from rapidcycling, which can physically damage them. Alteration of compressordelay settings may also be used as an energy saving strategy.

The ability to predict the rate of change in inside temperature in agiven house under varying conditions may also be applied to permitcalculation of the effect of different compressor delay settings oninside temperatures, air conditioner cycling and energy consumption.

FIG. 20 shows a flowchart illustrating the steps required to initiate acompressor delay adjustment event. In step 2002, server 106 retrievesparameters such as weather conditions, the current price perkilowatt-hour of electricity, and the state of the electric grid interms of supply versus demand for the geographic area that includes agiven conditioned space. In step 2004 server 106 determines whether toinstantiate the compressor delay adjustment program for a certain airconditioner in response to those conditions. In step 2006, server 106determines whether a specific conditioned space is subscribed toparticipate in compressor delay events. If a given conditioned space issubscribed, then in step 2008 the server retrieves the parameters neededto specify the compressor delay routine for that conditioned space.These may include user preferences, such as the weather, time of day andother conditions under which the user has elected to permit suchchanges, the maximum length of compressor delay authorized, etc. In step2010 the appropriate compressor delay settings are determined, and instep 2012 the chosen settings are communicated to the load controldevice. In step 2014 the server determines if additional thermostats orload control devices in the given group must still be evaluated. If so,the server returns to step 2006 and repeats the subsequent steps withthe next thermostat or load control device. If not, the routine ends.

FIGS. 21( a) through 21(c) illustrate how changes in compressor delaysettings affect air conditioner cycling behavior by plotting timeagainst temperature. In FIG. 21( a), time is shown on the horizontalaxis 2102, and temperature is shown on vertical axis 2104. The setpointfor load control device 108 is 70 degrees F., which results in thecycling behavior shown for inside temperature 2106. Because compressordelay CD1 2108 is, at approximately 3 minutes, shorter than the naturalduration of a compressor off cycle Off1 2110 at approximately 6 minutesfor this particular system under the illustrated conditions, thecompressor delay has no effect on the operation of the air conditioner.Because the hysteresis band operates to so as to maintain thetemperature within a range of plus or minus one degree of the setpoint,the air conditioner will switch on when the inside temperature reaches71 degrees, continue operating until it reaches 69 degrees, then shutoff. The system will then remain off until it reaches 71 degrees again,at which time it will again switch on. The percentage of time duringwhich inside temperature is above or below the setpoint will depend onconditions and the dynamic signature of the individual conditionedspace. Under the conditions illustrated, the average inside temperatureΔT1 2112 is roughly equal to the setpoint of 70 degrees.

FIG. 21( b) shows how with the same environmental conditions as in FIG.21( a), the cycling behavior of the inside temperature changes when thecompressor delay is longer than the natural compressor off cycle Off12110. Extended compressor delay CD2 2114 allows inside temperature 2116to climb above the range normally enforced by the hysteresis band.Because CD2 is roughly minutes, under the given conditions the insidetemperature climbs to approximately 72 degrees before the compressordelay allows the air conditioner to restart and drive the insidetemperature back down. But as before, the load control device shuts offthe air conditioner when the inside temperature reaches 69 degrees. Thusthe average temperature is increased from AT1 2112 to AT2 2118. Thischange will save energy and reduce cycling because it takes less energyto maintain a higher inside temperature with an air conditioner.However, the setpoint reported by the display of the load control device(if any) or the user interface accessible from a browser will continueto be the occupant's chosen setpoint of 70 degrees.

FIG. 21( c) shows how the same compressor delay can result in differentthermal cycling with different weather conditions. The greater theamount by which outside temperature exceeds inside temperature in theair conditioning context, the more rapidly the inside temperature willincrease during an off cycle, and the slower the air conditioner will beable to cool during the on cycle. Thus as compared to FIG. 21( b), whenthe inside temperature increased to roughly 72 degrees during theextended compressor delay of 8 minutes, a higher outside temperaturewill cause the inside temperature to increase faster, which results in apeak temperature of roughly 73 degrees, and in wider temperature cycling2120. The average inside temperature consequently increases from AT(2)2118 to AT(3) 2122.

It should be noted that the shape of the actual waveform will mostlikely not be sinusoidal, but for ease of illustration it is sometimesbe presented as such in the figures.

Residential air conditioning is a major component of peak load. Thetraditional approach to dealing with high demand on hot days is toincrease supply—build new powerplants, or buy additional capacity on thespot market. But because reducing loads has come to be considered asuperior strategy for matching electricity supply to demand when thegrid is stressed, the ability to shed load by turning off airconditioners during peak events has become a useful tool for managingloads. A key component of any such system is the ability to document andverify that a given air conditioner has actually turned off. Datalogging hardware can accomplish this, but due to the cost is usuallyonly deployed for statistical sampling, and is rarely applied towindow-mount air conditioners. The instant invention provides a means toverify demand response without additional hardware such as a datalogger.

Because server 106 logs the temperature readings from inside each house(whether once per minute or over some other interval), as well as thetiming and duration of air conditioning cycles, database 300 willcontain a history of the thermal performance of the conditioned spaceassociated with each load control device. That performance data willallow the server 106 to calculate an effective thermal mass for eachsuch conditioned space—that is, the speed with the inside temperaturewill change in response to changes in outside temperature. Because theserver will also log these inputs against other inputs including time ofday, humidity, etc. the server will be able to predict, at any giventime on any given day, the rate at which inside temperature shouldchange for given inside and outside temperatures. This will permitremote verification of load shedding by the air conditioner withoutdirectly measuring or recording the electrical load drawn by the airconditioner.

FIG. 22 shows the steps followed in order to initiate air conditionershutoff (or resetting its effective setpoint to a higher temperature).When a summer peak demand situation occurs, a utility or load aggregatorwill transmit an email 2202 or other signal to server 106 requesting areduction in load. Server 106 will determine 2204 if a given user isserved by the utility seeking reduction; determine 2206 if a given userhas agreed to reduce peak demand; and determine 2208 if a reduction ofconsumption by the user is required or desirable in order to achieve thereduction in demand requested by the utility. The server will transmit2210 a signal to the user's load control device 108 signaling it to shutoff the air conditioner 110.

FIG. 23 shows the steps followed in order to verify that the airconditioner has in fact been shut off. Server 106 will receive andmonitor 2302 the temperature readings sent by the user's load controldevice 108. The server then calculates 2304 the temperature reading tobe expected for that load control device given inputs such as currentand recent outside temperature, recent inside temperature readings, thecalculated thermal mass of the structure, temperature readings in otherhouses, etc. The server will compare 2306 the predicted reading with theactual reading. If the server determines that the temperature inside thehouse is rising at the rate predicted if the air conditioning is shutoff, then the server confirms 2308 that the air conditioning has beenshut off. If the temperature reading from the load control device showsno increase, or significantly less increase than predicted by the model,then the server concludes 2310 that the air conditioning was notswitched off, and that no contribution to the demand response requestwas made.

For example, assume that on at 3 PM on date Y utility X wishes totrigger a demand reduction event. A server at utility X transmits amessage to the server at demand reduction service provider Z requestingW megawatts of demand reduction. The demand reduction service providerserver determines that it will turn off the air conditioner in thebuilding containing load control device A in order to achieve therequired demand reduction. At the time the event is triggered, theinside temperature as reported by the load control device A is 72degrees F. The outside temperature near the building containing loadcontrol device A is 96 degrees Fahrenheit. The inside temperature at inthe building containing load control device B, which is not part of thedemand reduction program, but is both connected to the demand reductionservice server and located geographically proximate to the buildingcontaining load control device A, is 74 F. Because the air conditionercontrolled by load control device A has been turned off, the temperatureinside in the building containing load control device A begins to rise,so that at 4 PM it has increased to 79 F. Because the server is aware ofthe outside temperature, which remains at 96 F, and of the rate oftemperature rise inside the building containing load control device A onprevious days on which temperatures have been at or near 96 F, and thetemperature in the building containing load control device B, which hasrisen only to 75 F because the air conditioning in the buildingcontaining load control device B continues to operate normally, theserver is able to confirm with a high degree of certainty that the airconditioner in the building containing load control device A has indeedbeen shut off.

In contrast, if the air conditioner in the building containing loadcontrol device A has been plugged in so as to bypass the load controldevice 108, so that a demand reduction signal from the server does notactually result in shutting off the air conditioner in the buildingcontaining load control device A, when the server compares the rate oftemperature change in the building containing load control device Aagainst the other data points, the server will receive data inconsistentwith the rate of increase predicted. As a result, it will conclude thatthe air conditioner has not been shut off as expected, and may notcredit load control device A with the financial credit that would beassociated with demand reduction compliance, or may trigger a businessprocess that could result in termination of load control device A'sparticipation in the demand reduction program.

FIG. 24 illustrates the movement of signals and information between thecomponents of one embodiment of the subject invention to trigger andverify a demand reduction response. Where demand response events areundertaken on behalf of a utility by a third party, participants in thecommunications may include electric utility server 2400, demandreduction service server 106, and load control device 108. In step 2402the electric utility server 2400 transmits a message to demand reductionservice server 106 requesting a demand reduction of a specified durationand size. Demand reduction service server 106 uses database 300 todetermine which subscribers should be included in the demand reductionevent. For each included subscriber, the server then sends a signal 2404to the subscriber's load control device 108 instructing it (a) to shutdown at the appropriate time or (b) to allow the temperature as measuredby the load control device to increase to a certain temperature at thespecified time, depending upon the agreement between the user and thedemand reduction aggregator. The server then receives 2406 temperaturesignals from the subscriber's load control device. At the conclusion ofthe demand reduction event, the server transmits a signal 2408 to theload control device permitting it to signal its attached air conditionerto resume cooling, if the system has been shut off, or to reduce thetarget temperature to its pre-demand reduction setting, if the targettemperature was merely increased. If load control device 108 is capableof storing scheduling information, these instructions may be transmittedprior to the time they are to be executed and stored locally. Afterdetermining the total number of subscribers actually participating inthe DR event, the server then calculates the total demand reductionachieved and sends a message 2410 to the electric utility confirmingsuch reduction.

Additional steps may be included in the process. For example, if thesubscriber has previously requested that notice be provided when a peakdemand reduction event occurs, the server will also send an alert, whichmay be in the form of an email or text message or an update to thepersonalized web page for that user, or both. If the server determinesthat a given user has (or has not) complied with the terms of its demandreduction agreement, the server may send a message to the subscriberconfirming that fact.

It should also be noted that in some climate zones, peak demand eventsoccur during extreme cold weather rather than (or in addition to) duringhot weather. The same process as discussed above could be employed toreduce demand by shutting off electric heaters and monitoring the rateat which temperatures fall.

It should also be noted that the peak demand reduction service can beperformed directly by an electric utility, so that the functions ofserver 106 can be combined with the functions of server 2400.

The system installed in a subscriber's conditioned space may optionallyinclude additional temperature sensors at different locations within thebuilding. These additional sensors may be connected to the rest of thesystem via a wireless system such as 802.11 or 802.15.4, or may beconnected via wires. Additional temperature and/or humidity sensors mayallow increased accuracy of the system, which can in turn increase usercomfort, energy savings or both.

Bi-directional communication between server 106 and load control device108 will also allow the load control device to regularly measure andsend to server 106 information about the temperature in the conditionedspace. By comparing outside temperature, inside temperature, temperaturesettings, cycling behavior of the heater or air conditioner system, andother variables, the system will be capable of numerous diagnostic andcontrolling functions beyond those of a standard load control device orthermostat.

For example, FIG. 25 a shows a graph of inside temperature and outsidetemperature for a 24-hour period in conditioned space A, assuming no airconditioner activity. Conditioned space A has double-glazed windows andis well insulated. When outside temperature 2502 increases, insidetemperature 2504 follows, but with significant delay because of thethermal mass of the building.

FIG. 25 b shows a graph of inside temperature and outside temperaturefor the same 24-hour period in conditioned space B. Conditioned space Bis identical to conditioned space A except that it (i) is located ablock away and (ii) has single-glazed windows and is poorly insulated.Because the two buildings are so close to each other, outsidetemperature 2502 is the same in FIG. 25 a and FIG. 25 b. But the lowerthermal mass of conditioned space B means that the rate at which theinside temperature 2506 changes in response to the changes in outsidetemperature is much greater.

The differences in thermal mass will affect the cycling behavior of theair conditioners and heaters in the two conditioned spaces as well. FIG.26 a shows a graph of inside temperature and outside temperature inconditioned space A for the same 24-hour period as shown in FIG. 6 a,but assuming that the air conditioning is being used to try to maintainan internal temperature of 70 degrees. Outside temperatures 2502 are thesame as in FIGS. 25 a and 25 b. Inside temperature 2608 is maintainedwithin the range determined by load control device 108 by the cycling ofthe air conditioner. Because of the high thermal mass of the house, theair conditioning does not need to run for very long to maintain thetarget temperature, as shown by shaded areas 2610.

FIG. 26 b shows a graph of inside temperature 2612 and outsidetemperature 2502 for the same 24-hour period in conditioned space B,assuming use of the air conditioning as in FIG. 26 a. Because of thelower thermal mass of conditioned space B, the air conditioning systemin conditioned space B has to run longer in order to maintain the sametarget temperature range, as shown by shaded areas 2614.

Because server 106 logs the temperature readings from each load controldevice (whether once per minute or over some other interval), as well asthe timing and duration of air conditioning cycles, database 300 willcontain a history of the thermal performance of each conditioned space.That performance data will allow the server 106 to calculate aneffective thermal mass for each such space—that is, the speed with theinside temperature will change in response to changes in outsidetemperature and differences between inside and outside temperatures.Because the server 106 will also log these inputs against other inputsincluding time of day, humidity, etc. the server will be able topredict, at any given time on any given day, the rate at which insidetemperature should change for given inside and outside temperatures.

The server will also record the responses of each conditioned space tochanges in outside conditions and cycling behavior over time. That willallow the server to diagnose problems as and when they develop. Forexample, FIG. 27 a shows a graph of outside temperature 2702, insidetemperature 2704 and air conditioner cycle times 2706 in conditionedspace A for a specific 24-hour period on date X. Assume that, based uponcomparison of the performance of conditioned space A on date X relativeto conditioned space A's historical performance, and in comparison tothe performance of conditioned space A relative to other nearbyconditioned spaces on date X, the air conditioner in conditioned space Ais presumed to be operating at normal efficiency, and that conditionedspace A is in the 86^(th) percentile as compared to those otherconditioned spaces. FIG. 27 b shows a graph of outside temperature 2708,inside temperature 2710 and air conditioner cycle times 2712 inconditioned space A for the 24-hour period on date X+1. Conditionedspace A's HVAC system now requires significantly longer cycle times inorder to try to maintain the same internal temperature. If those longercycle times were due to higher outside temperatures, those cycle timeswould not indicate the existence of any problems. But because server 106is aware of the outside temperature, the system can eliminate thatpossibility as an explanation for the longer cycle times. Because server106 is aware of the cycle times in nearby conditioned spaces, it candetermine that, for example, on date X+1 the efficiency of the airconditioner in conditioned space A is only in the 23^(rd) percentile.The server will be programmed with a series of heuristics, gathered frompredictive models and past experience, correlating the drop inefficiency and the time interval over which it has occurred withdifferent possible causes. For example, a 50% drop in efficiency in oneday may be correlated with a refrigerant leak, especially if followed bya further drop in efficiency on the following day. A reduction of 10%over three months may be correlated with a clogged filter. Based uponthe historical data recorded by the server, the server 106 will be ableto alert the user that there is a problem and suggest a possible cause.

Because the system will be able to calculate effective thermal mass, itwill be able to determine the cost effectiveness of strategies such aspre-cooling for specific houses under different conditions. FIG. 28 ashows a graph of outside temperature 2802, inside temperature 2804 andair conditioner cycling times 2806 in conditioned space A for a specific24-hour period on date Y assuming that the system has used a pre-coolingstrategy to avoid running the air conditioning during the afternoon,when rates are highest. Because conditioned space A has high thermalmass, it is capable of “banking” cooling, and energy consumed duringoff-peak hours is in effect stored, allowing the conditioned space toremain cool even when the system is turned off. Temperatures keep risingduring the period the air conditioner is off, but because thermal massis high, the rate of increase is low, and the conditioned space is stillcomfortable six hours later. Although the pre-cooling cycle time isrelatively long, the customer may still benefit if the price perkilowatt during the morning pre-cooling phase is lower than the priceduring the peak load period. FIG. 28 b shows a graph of the same outsidetemperature 2802 in conditioned space B as for conditioned space A inFIG. 28 a for the same 24-hour period and using the same pre-coolingstrategy as shown by cycling times 2806. But because conditioned space Bhas minimal thermal mass, using additional electricity in order topre-cool the space does not have the desired effect; inside temperature2808 warms up so fast that the cooling that had been banked is quicklylost. Thus the system will recommend that conditioned space A bepre-cooled in order to save money, but not recommend pre-cooling forconditioned space B.

The system can also help compensate for anomalies such as measurementinaccuracies due to factors such as poor load control device location.It is well known that thermostats should be placed in a location thatwill be likely to experience “average” temperatures for the overallstructure, and should be isolated from windows and other influences thatcould bias the temperatures they “see.” But for various reasons, loadcontrol devices are likely to be used in locations that do not fit thatideal. The wall outlet most convenient for a given air window-mountconditioner, for example, is likely to be located on an outside wall,and either near the floor or high on the wall. As such, it will belikely to report temperature readings that are higher or lower than thetemperature that would be reported by a properly located thermostat.FIG. 29 a shows a graph of outside temperature 2902, the insidetemperature as it would be reported by a properly located thermostat orload control device 2904, and inside temperature as read by the actualload control device 2906 in House C for a specific 24-hour period onSeptember 15^(th), assuming that the load control device is located sothat for part of the afternoon on that day the load control device is indirect sunlight. Until the sun hits the load control device, the“correct” inside temperature and temperature as read by the actual loadcontrol device track very closely. But when the direct sunlight hits theload control device, the load control device and the surrounding areacan heat up, causing the internal temperature as read by the loadcontrol device to diverge significantly from the temperature elsewherein the conditioned space. A conventional thermostat or load controldevice has no way of distinguishing this circumstance from a genuinelyhot day, and will both over-cool the conditioned space and wasteconsiderable energy when it cycles the air conditioner in order toreduce the temperature as sensed by the load control device. If the airconditioning is turned off, this phenomenon will manifest as a spike intemperature as measured by the load control device. If the airconditioner is turned on (and has sufficient capacity to respond to thedistorted temperature signal caused by the sunlight), this phenomenonwill likely manifest as relatively small changes in the temperature assensed by the load control device, but significantly increased HVACusage (as well as excessively lowered temperatures in the conditionedspace, but this result may not be directly measured in a single-sensorenvironment). The subject invention, in contrast, has multiplemechanisms that will allow it to correct for such distortions. First,because the subject system compares the internal readings fromconditioned space C with the external temperature, it will be obviousthat the rise in temperature at 4:00 PM is not correlated with acorresponding change in outside temperature. Second, because the systemis also monitoring the readings from the thermostat or load controldevice in nearby conditioned space D, which (as shown in FIG. 29 b) isexposed to the same outside temperature 602, but has no sudden rise inmeasured internal afternoon temperature 2908, the system has furthervalidation that the temperature increase is not caused by climaticconditions. And finally, because the system has monitored and recordedthe temperature readings from the load control device in conditionedspace C for each previous day, and has compared the changing times ofthe aberration with the progression of the sun, the system candistinguish the patterns likely to indicate solar overheating from otherpotential causes.

FIG. 30 illustrates the steps involved in calculating comparativethermal mass, or the thermal mass index. In step 3002, the serverretrieves climate data related to conditioned space X. Such data mayinclude current outside temperature, outside temperature during thepreceding hours, outside humidity, wind direction and speed, whether thesun is obscured by clouds, and other factors. In step 3004, the serverretrieves air conditioner or heater duty cycle data for conditionedspace X. Such data may include target settings set by the load controldevice 108 in current and previous periods, the timing of switch-on andswitch-off events and other data. In step 3006, the server retrievesdata regarding recent temperature readings as recorded by the loadcontrol device 108 in conditioned space X. In step 3008, the serverretrieves profile data for conditioned space X. Such data may includesquare footage, when the structure was built and/or renovated, theextent to which it is insulated, its address, the make, model and age ofthe controlled heater or air conditioner, and other data. In step 3010,the server retrieves the current inside temperature reading astransmitted by the load control device. In step 3012, the servercalculates the thermal mass index for the conditioned space under thoseconditions; that is, for example, it calculates the likely rate ofchange for internal temperature in conditioned space X from a startingpoint of 70 degrees when the outside temperature is 85 degrees at 3:00PM on August 10^(th) when the wind is blowing at 5 mph from the northand the sky is cloudy. The server accomplishes this by applying a basicalgorithm that weighs each of these external variables as well asvariables for various characteristics of the conditioned space itself(such as size, level of insulation, method of construction, etc.) anddata from other structures and environments.

FIG. 31 illustrates the steps involved in diagnosing defects in the airconditioner or heater for specific conditioned space X. In step 3102,the server retrieves climate data related to conditioned space X. Suchdata may include current outside temperature, outside temperature duringthe preceding hours, outside humidity, wind direction and speed, whetherthe sun is obscured by clouds, and other factors. In step 3104, theserver retrieves heating or air conditioner duty cycle data forconditioned space X. Such data may include target settings set by theload control device in current and previous periods, the timing ofswitch-on and switch-off events and other data. In step 3106, the serverretrieves data regarding current and recent temperature readings asrecorded by the load control device in conditioned space X. In step3108, the server retrieves profile data for conditioned space X. Suchdata may include square footage, when the house was built and/orrenovated, the extent to which it is insulated, its address, the make,model and age of the attached heater or air conditioner, and other data.In step 3110, the server retrieves comparative data from otherconditioned spaces that have thermostats or load control devices thatalso report to the server. Such data may include interior temperaturereadings, outside temperature for those specific locations, duty cycledata for the heaters and air conditioners systems at those locations,profile data for the structures and heating and air conditioners inthose conditioned space and the calculated thermal mass index for thoseother conditioned spaces. In step 3112, the server calculates thecurrent relative efficiency of the heater or air conditioner operatingin conditioned space X as compared to the heaters and air conditionersoperating in other conditioned spaces. Those comparisons will take intoaccount differences in size, location, age, etc in making thosecomparisons.

The server will also take into account that comparative efficiency isnot absolute, but will vary depending on conditions. For example, aconditioned space that has extensive south-facing windows is likely toexperience significant solar gain. On sunny winter days, the heater inthat conditioned space will probably appear more efficient than it doeson cloudy winter days. The air conditioner in that same conditionedspace will appear more efficient at times of day and year when trees oroverhangs shade those windows than it will when summer sun reaches thosewindows. Thus the server will calculate efficiency under varyingconditions.

In step 3114 the server compares the heater or air conditioner'sefficiency, corrected for the relevant conditions, to its efficiency inthe past. If the current efficiency is substantially the same as thehistorical efficiency, the server concludes 3116 that there is no defectand the diagnostic routine ends. If the efficiency has changed, theserver proceeds to compare the historical and current data againstpatterns of changes known to indicate specific problems. For example, instep 3118, the server compares that pattern of efficiency changesagainst the known pattern for a clogged air filter, which is likely toshow a slow, gradual degradation over a period of weeks or even months.If the pattern of degradation matches the clogged filter paradigm, theserver creates and transmits to the user a message 3120 alerting theuser to the possible problem. If the problem does not match the cloggedfilter paradigm, the system compares 3122 the pattern to the knownpattern for a refrigerant leak, which is likely to show degradation overa period of a few hours to a few days. If the pattern of degradationmatches the refrigerant leak paradigm, the server creates and transmitsto the user a message 3124 alerting the user to the possible problem. Ifthe problem does not match the refrigerant leak paradigm, the systemcompares 3126 the pattern to the known pattern for an open window ordoor, which is likely to show significant changes for relatively shortperiods at intervals uncorrelated with climatic patterns. If the patternof degradation matches the open door/window paradigm, the server createsand transmits to the user a message 3128 alerting the user to thepossible problem. If the problem does not match the refrigerant leakparadigm, the system continues to step through remaining know patterns N3130 until either a pattern is matched 3132 or the list has beenexhausted without a match 3134.

FIG. 32 illustrates the steps involved in diagnosing inaccuratetemperature readings from load control device 108 due to improperlocation. In step 3202, the server retrieves climate data related toconditioned space X. Such data may include current outside temperature,outside temperature during the preceding, hours, outside humidity, winddirection and speed, whether the sun is obscured by clouds, and otherfactors. In step 3204, the server retrieves heater or air conditionerduty cycle data for conditioned space X. Such data may include targetsettings set by the load control device in current and previous periods,the timing of switch-on and switch-off events and other data. In step3206, the server retrieves data regarding current and recent temperaturereadings as recorded by the load control device in conditioned space X.In step 3208, the server retrieves profile data for conditioned space X.Such data may include square footage, when the conditioned space wasbuilt and/or renovated, the extent to which it is insulated, itsaddress, the make, model and age of the attached heater or airconditioner, and other data. In step 3210, the server retrievescomparative data from other conditioned spaces that have thermostats orload control devices that also report to the server. Such data mayinclude interior temperature readings, outside temperature for thosespecific locations, duty cycle data for the associated heaters and airconditioners at those locations, profile data for the structures andheaters and air conditioners in those conditioned spaces and thecalculated thermal mass index for those other conditioned space. In step3212, the server calculates the expected temperature reading at the loadcontrol device based upon the input data. In step 3214, the servercompares the predicted and actual values. If the calculated and actualvalues are at least roughly equivalent, the server concludes 3216 thatthere is no temperature-sensing-related anomaly. If the calculated andactual values are not roughly equivalent, the server retrievesadditional historical information about past temperature readings instep 3218. In step 3220, the server retrieves solar progression data,i.e., information regarding the times at which the sun rises and sets onthe days being evaluated at the location of the conditioned space beingevaluated, and the angle of the sun at that latitude, etc. In step 3222,the server compares the characteristics of the anomalies over time, tosee if, for example, abnormally high readings began at 3:06 on June5^(th), 3:09 on June 6^(th), 3:12 on June 7^(th), and the solarprogression data suggests that at the house being analyzed, that sunwould be likely to reach a given place in that house three minutes lateron each of those days. If the temperature readings do not correlate withthe solar progression data, the server concludes 3224 that the sun isnot causing the distortion by directly hitting the load control device.If the temperature readings do correlate with solar progression, theserver then calculates 3226 the predicted duration of the distortioncaused by the sun. In step 3228, the server calculates the appropriatesetpoint information to be used by the load control device to maintainthe desired temperature and correct for the distortion for the expectedlength of the event. For example, if the uncorrected setpoint during thepredicted event is 72 degrees, and the sun is expected to elevate thetemperature reading by eight degrees, the server may instruct the loadcontrol device to maintain a setpoint of 80 degrees during the durationof the distortion-causing event. In step 3230, the server sends the usera message describing the problem.

The instant invention may be used to implement additional energy savingsby implementing small, repeated changes in setpoint. With simpletemperature-controlled heaters and air conditioners (which are either onor off), energy consumption is directly proportional to setpoint—thatis, the further a given setpoint diverges from the balance point (thenatural inside temperature assuming no HVAC activity) in a given houseunder given conditions, the higher energy consumption will be tomaintain temperature at that setpoint), energy will be saved by anystrategy that over a given time frame lowers the average heatingsetpoint or raises the average cooling setpoint. It is thereforepossible to save energy by adopting a strategy that takes advantage ofhuman insensitivity to slow temperature ramping by incorporating auser's desired setpoint within the range of the ramp, but setting theaverage target temperature below the desired setpoint in the case ofheating, and above it in the case of cooling. For example, a rampedsummer setpoint that consisted of a repeated pattern of three phases ofequal length set at 72° F., 73° F., and 74° F. would create an effectiveaverage setpoint of 73° F., but would generally be experienced byoccupants as yielding equivalent comfort as in a room set at a constant72° F. Energy savings resulting from this approach have been shown to bein the range of 4-6%.

The subject invention can automatically generate optimized rampedsetpoints that save energy without compromising the comfort of theoccupants. It would also be advantageous to create a temperature controlsystem that could incorporate adaptive algorithms that couldautomatically determine when the ramped setpoints should not be applieddue to a variety of exogenous conditions that make application of suchramped setpoints undesirable.

FIG. 33 represents the conventional programming of a thermostat or loadcontrol device controlling an air conditioner and the resultingtemperatures inside a conditioned space. The morning setpoint 3302 of 74degrees remains constant from midnight until 9:00 AM, and the insidetemperature 3304 varies more or less within the limits of the hysteresisband of the thermostat or load control device during that entire period.When the setpoint changes to 80 degrees 3306, the inside temperature3308 varies within the hysteresis band around the new setpoint, and soon. Whether the average temperature is equal to, greater or less thanthe nominal setpoint will depend on weather conditions, the dynamicsignature of the structure, and the efficiency and size of the airconditioner. But in most cases the average temperature will be at leastroughly equivalent to the nominal setpoint.

FIG. 34 represents implementation of a three-phase ramped setpointderived from the same user preferences as manifested by the settingsshown in FIG. 33. Thus the user-selected setpoint for the morning isstill 74 degrees, and is reflected in the setpoint 3404 at the start ofeach three-step cycle, but because (in the air conditioning context) thesetpoint requested by the user is the lowest of the three discretesteps, rather than the middle step, the average setpoint will be onedegree higher 3402, and the resulting average inside temperature will beroughly one degree warmer than the average temperature without use ofthe ramped setpoints, thereby saving energy.

In the currently preferred embodiment, the implementation of the rampedsetpoints may be dynamic based upon both conditions inside the structureand other planned setpoint changes. Thus, for example, the rampedsetpoints 3406, 3408 and 3410 may be timed so that the 9 AM change inuser-determined setpoint from 74 degrees to 80 degrees is in effectanticipated, and the period in which the air conditioner is not used canbe extended prior to the scheduled start time for the lessenergy-intensive setpoint. Similarly, because the server 106 is awarethat a lower setpoint will begin at 5 PM, the timing can be adjusted toavoid excessively warm temperatures immediately prior to the scheduledsetpoint change, which could cause noticeable discomfort relative to thenew setpoint if the air conditioner is incapable of quickly reducinginside temperature on a given day based upon the expected slope ofinside temperatures at that time 3412.

In order to implement such ramped setpoints automatically, algorithmsmay be created. These algorithms may be generated and/or executed asinstructions on remote server 106 and the resulting setpoint changes canbe transmitted to a given thermostat or load control device on ajust-in-time basis or, if the load control device 108 is capable ofstoring future settings, they may be transferred in batch mode to suchload control device. Basic parameters used to generate such algorithmsinclude: the number of discrete phases to be used; the temperaturedifferential associated with each phase; and the duration of each phase

In order to increase user comfort and thus maximize consumer acceptance,additional parameters may be considered, including: time of day, outsideweather conditions, recent history of manual inputs, and recentpre-programmed setpoint changes.

Time of day may be relevant because, for example, if the conditionedspace is typically unoccupied at a given time, there is no need forperceptual programming. Outside weather is relevant because comfort isdependent not just on temperature as sensed by a thermostat or loadcontrol device, but also includes radiant differentials. On extremelycold days, even if the inside dry-bulb temperature is within normalcomfort range, radiant losses due to cold surfaces such as single-glazedwindows can cause subjective discomfort; thus on such days occupants maybe more sensitive to ramping. Recent manual inputs (e.g., programmingoverrides) may create situations in which exceptions should be taken;depending on the context, recent manual inputs may either suspend theramping of setpoints or simply alter the baseline temperature from whichthe ramping takes place.

FIG. 35 shows the steps used in the core ramped setpoint algorithm inthe context of a remotely managed system. In step 3502 the applicationdetermines whether to instantiate the algorithm based upon externalscheduling criteria. In step 3504 the application running on a remoteserver retrieves from load control device 108 the data generated by orentered into the load control device, including current temperaturesettings, air conditioner or heater status and inside temperature. Thealgorithm performs preliminary logical tests at that point to determinewhether further processing is required. For example, in the heatingcontext, if the inside temperature as reported by the load controldevice 108 is more than 1 degree higher than the current setpoint, thealgorithm may determine that running the ramped setpoint program willhave no effect and therefore terminate. In step 3506 the algorithmadvances to the next phase from the most recent phase; i.e., if thealgorithm is just starting, the phase changes from “0” to “1”; if it hasjust completed the third phase of a three-phase ramp, the phase willchange from “2” to “0”. In step 3508 the application determines if thecurrent phase is “0”. If it is, then in step 1210 the algorithmdetermines whether current setpoint equals the setpoint in the previousphase. If so, which implies no manual overrides or other setpointadjustments have occurred during the most recent phase, then in step3512 the algorithm sets the new setpoint back to the previous phase “0”setpoint. If not, then in step 3514, the algorithm keeps the currenttemperature setting as setpoint for this new phase. In step 3516, thealgorithm logs the resulting new setpoint as the new phase “0” setpointfor use in subsequent phases.

Returning to the branch after step 3508, if the current phase at thatpoint is not phase “0”, then in step 3520, the algorithm determineswhether the current setpoint is equal to the setpoint temperature in theprevious phase. If not, which implies setpoints have been adjusted bythe house occupants, load control device schedules, or other events,then in step 3522, the application resets the phase to “0”, resets thenew setpoint associated with phase “0” to equal the current temperaturesetting, and sets the current setting to that temperature.Alternatively, if the current temperature setting as determined in step3520 is equal to the setpoint in the previous phase, then in step 3524new setpoint is made to equal current setpoint plus the differentialassociated with each phase change. In step 3526 the “previous-phasesetpoint” variable is reset to equal the new setpoint in anticipation ofits use during a subsequent iteration.

FIG. 36 shows one embodiment of the overall control applicationimplementing the algorithm described in FIG. 35. In step 3602, thecontrol application retrieves the current setting from the load controldevice. In step 3604, the setting is logged in database 300. In step3606, the control program determines whether other algorithms that havehigher precedence than the ramped setpoint algorithm are to be run. Ifanother algorithm is to be run prior to the ramped setpoint algorithm,then the other program is executed in step 3608. If there are noalternate algorithms that should precede the ramped setpoint applicationthen in step 1310, the control program determines whether the loadcontrol device has been assigned to execute the ramped setpoint program.If not, the control program skips the remaining actions in the currentiteration. If the program is set to run, then in step 3612 the algorithmretrieves from database 300 the rules and parameters governing theimplementation of the algorithm for the current application of theprogram.

In step 3614, the algorithm determines whether one or more conditionsthat preclude application of the algorithm, such as extreme outsideweather conditions, whether the conditioned space is likely to beoccupied, etc. If any of the exclusionary conditions apply, theapplication skips execution of the ramped setpoint algorithm for thecurrent iteration. If not, the application proceeds to step 3616 inwhich the application determines whether the setpoint has been alteredby manual overrides, setback schedule changes, or other algorithms ascompared to the previous value as stored in database 300.

If the setpoint has been altered, the application proceeds to step 3620discussed below. In step 3618, the program described in FIG. 35 isexecuted. In step 3620, the application resets the phase to “0”. Certaintemperature setting variables are reset in anticipation of their use insubsequent phases. These variables include the new phase 0 temperaturesetting which is anchored to the current actual temperature setting, andthe new previous-phase setpoint which will be used for identifyingsetpoint overrides in the subsequent phase.

In step 3622, the system records the changes to the temperature settingsto database 300. In step 3624, the system records the changes to thephase status of the algorithm to database 300. In step 3626, theapplication determines whether the new temperature setting differs fromthe current setting. If they are the same, the application skipsapplying changes to the load control device. If they are different, thenin step 3628, the application transmits revised settings to the loadcontrol device. In step 3630, the application then hibernates for thespecified duration until it is invoked again by beginning at step 3602again.

The subject invention may also be used to detect occupancy through theuse of software related to electronic devices located inside theconditioned structure, such as the browser running on computer or otherdevice 104. FIG. 37 represents the screen of a computer or other device104 using a graphical user interface connected to the Internet. Thescreen shows that a browser 3700 is displayed on computer 104. In oneembodiment, a background application installed on computer 104 detectsactivity by a user of the computer, such as cursor movement, keystrokesor otherwise, and signals the application running on server 106 thatactivity has been detected. Server 106 may then, depending on context,(a) transmit a signal to load control device 108 changing setpointbecause occupancy has been detected at a time when the system did notexpect occupancy; (b) signal the background application running oncomputer 104 to trigger a software routine that instantiates a pop-upwindow 3702 that asks the user if the server should change the currentsetpoint, alter the overall programming of the system based upon a newoccupancy pattern, etc. The user can respond by clicking the cursor on“yes” button 3704 or “No” button 3706. Equivalent means of signallingactivity may be employed with interactive television programming, gamingsystems, etc.

FIG. 38 is a flowchart showing the steps involved in the operation ofone embodiment of the subject invention. In step 3802, computer 104transmits a message to server 106 via the Internet indicating that thereis user activity on computer 104. This activity can be in the form ofkeystrokes, cursor movement, input via a television remote control, etc.In step 3804 the application queries database 300 to retrieve settinginformation for the load control device. In step 3806 the applicationdetermines whether the current heating or air conditioning program isintended to apply when the conditioned space is occupied or unoccupied.If the settings then in effect are intended to apply for an occupiedspace, then the application terminates for a specified interval. If thesettings then in effect are intended to apply when the conditioned spaceis unoccupied, then in step 3808 the application will retrieve fromdatabase 300 the user's specific preferences for how to handle thissituation. If the user has previously specified (at the time that theprogram was initially set up or subsequently modified) that the userprefers that the system automatically change settings under suchcircumstances, the application then proceeds to step 3816, in which itchanges the programmed setpoint for the load control device to thesetting intended for the house when occupied. If the user has previouslyspecified that the application should not make such changes withoutfurther user input, then in step 3810 the application transmits acommand to computer 104 directing the browser to display a messageinforming the user that the current setting assumes an unoccupied spaceand asking the user in step 3812 to choose whether to either keep thecurrent settings or revert to the pre-selected setting for an occupiedspace. If the user selects to retain the current setting, then in step3814 the application will write to database 300 the fact that the usershas so elected and terminate. If the user elects to change the setting,then in step 3816 the application transmits the revised setpoint to theload control device. In step 3814 the application writes the updatedsetting information to database 300.

FIG. 39 is a flowchart that shows how the invention can be used toselect different heating and cooling settings based upon its ability toidentify which of multiple potential occupants is using the computerattached to the system. In step 3902 computer 104 transmits to server106 information regarding the type of activity detected on computer 104.Such information could include the specific program or channel beingwatched if, for example, computer 104 is used to watch television. Theinformation matching, for example, TV channel 7 at 4:00 PM on a givendate to specific content may be made by referring to Internet-based orother widely available scheduling sources for such content. In step 3904server 106 retrieves from database 300 previously logged data regardingviewed programs. In step 3906 server 106 retrieves previously storeddata regarding the occupants of the space. For example, upon initiatingthe service, one or more users may have filled out online questionnairessharing their age, gender, schedules, viewing preferences, etc. In step3908, server 106 compares the received information about user activityto previously stored information retrieved from database 300 about theoccupants and their viewing preferences. For example, if computer 104indicates to server 106 that the computer is being used to watch golf,the server may conclude that an adult male is watching; if computer 104indicates that it is being used to watch children's programming, server106 may conclude that a child is watching. In step 3910 the servertransmits a query to the user in order to verify the match, asking, ineffect, “Is that you, Bob?” In step 3912, based upon the user'sresponse, the application determines whether the correct user has beenidentified. If the answer is no, then the application proceeds to step3916. If the answer is yes, then in step 3914 the application retrievesthe temperature settings for the identified occupant. In step 3916 theapplication writes to database 300 the programming information andinformation regarding matching of users to that programming.

In an alternative embodiment, the application running on computer 104may respond to general user inputs (that is, inputs not specificallyintended to instantiate communication with the remote server) byquerying the user whether a given action should be taken. For example,in a system in which the computer 104 is a web-enabled television orweb-enabled set-top device connected to a television as a display,software running on computer 104 detects user activity, and transmits amessage indicating such activity to server 106. The trigger for thissignal may be general, such as changing channels or adjusting volumewith the remote control or a power-on event. Upon receipt by server 106of this trigger, server 106 transmits instructions to computer 104causing it to display a dialog box asking the user whether the userwishes to change heating or cooling settings.

While particular embodiments of the present invention have been shownand described, it is apparent that changes and modifications may be madewithout departing from the invention in its broader aspects and,therefore, the invention may carried out in other ways without departingfrom the true spirit and scope. These and other equivalents are intendedto be covered by the following claims:

What is claimed is:
 1. A system for controlling plug-in air conditionersand plug-in heaters comprising: at least one load control device at afirst location, the load control device configured to connect to a firstelectrical outlet and to connect to a plug-in air conditioner or plug-inportable heater, the load control device located inside the spaceconditioned by the plug-in air conditioner or plug-in portable heater,the load control device further configured to control whether theplug-in air conditioner or the plug-in portable heater is “on” or “off”,and wherein the load control device comprises at least onemicroprocessor that is configured to communicate over a computernetwork; one or more processors remotely located from the firstlocation, wherein the one or more processors are configured to receivetemperature measurements associated with the space conditioned by theplug-in air conditioner or plug-in portable heater, and receivemeasurements of outside temperatures associated with the first location,wherein the one or more processors are configured to calculate at leasta first rate of change in temperature at said first location for periodsduring which the status of the plug-in air conditioner or plug-inportable heater is “on” and wherein said one or more processors arefurther configured to calculate at least a second rate of change intemperature at said first location for periods during which the statusof the plug-in air conditioner or plug-in portable heater is “off”,wherein the one or more processors are further configured to communicateoperational control instructions to the microprocessor in the loadcontrol device via the computer network; and wherein the microprocessor,in the load control device, turns the plug-in air conditioner or theplug-in portable heater to “on” or “off” based on the operationalinstructions received from the one or more processors via the computernetwork.
 2. The system of claim 1 wherein the load control devicecomprises a user interface.
 3. The system of claim 1 wherein the one ormore processors generate the operational control instructions based atleast in part on the temperature measurements associated with the spaceconditioned by the plug-in air conditioner or the plug-in portableheater and based at least in part on the measurements of outsidetemperatures from at least one other source.
 4. The system of claim 1 inwhich the plug-in air conditioner is mounted through an opening in abuilding envelope.
 5. The system of claim 1 in which the plug-inportable heater is a space heater.
 6. The system of claim 1 in which theload control device further measures the temperature of the spaceconditioned by the plug-in air conditioner or plug-in portable heater.7. The system of claim 1 in which the load control device furthermeasures at least one of the group consisting of the electrical current,and voltage passing through the load control device.
 8. The system ofclaim 1 in which the load control device is configured to senseoccupancy of the space conditioned by the plug-in air conditioner orplug-in portable heater.
 9. The system of claim 1 in which the loadcontrol device is paired with a mobile device.
 10. A system forcontrolling plug-in air conditioners and plug-in heaters comprising: atleast one load control device at a first location, the load controldevice configured to connect to a first electrical outlet and to connectto a plug-in air conditioner or plug-in portable heater, the loadcontrol device located inside the space conditioned by the plug-in airconditioner or plug-in portable heater, the load control device furtherconfigured to control whether the plug-in air conditioner or the plug-inportable heater is “on” or “off”, and wherein the load control devicecomprises at least one microprocessor that is configured to communicateover a computer network; one or more processors remotely located fromthe first location, wherein the one or more processors are configured toreceive temperature measurements first source associated with the spaceconditioned by the plug-in air conditioner or plug-in portable heater,and receive measurements of outside temperatures associated with thefirst location, and wherein the one or more processors are furtherconfigured to communicate operational control instructions to themicroprocessor in the load control device via the computer network,wherein the one or more processors generate the operational controlinstructions based at least in part on the location of a mobile device;and wherein the microprocessor, in the load control device, turns theplug-in air conditioner or the plug-in portable heater to “on” or “off”based on the operational instructions received from the one or moreprocessors via the computer network.
 11. A method for controllingplug-in air conditioners and plug-in heaters comprising: connecting at afirst location, at least one load control device to a first electricaloutlet and to a plug-in air conditioner or plug-in portable heater, theload control device located inside the space conditioned by the plug-inair conditioner or plug-in portable heater, the load control devicefurther configured to control whether the plug-in air conditioner or theplug-in portable heater is “on” or “off”, the load control devicecomprising at least a microprocessor that is configured to communicateover a computer network; receiving temperatures associated with thespace conditioned by the plug-in air conditioner or the plug-in portableheater at one or more processors remotely located from the firstlocation; receiving at the one or more processors, measurements ofoutside temperatures associated with the first location; calculatingwith the one or more processors at least a first rate of change intemperature at said first location for periods during which the statusof the plug-in air conditioner or plug-in portable heater is “on” andwherein said one or more processors are further configured to calculateat least a second rate of change in temperature at said first locationfor periods during which the status of the plug-in air conditioner orplug-in portable heater is “off”; receiving at the load control device,operational control instructions from the one or more processors via thecomputer network; and turning the plug-in air conditioner or the plug-inportable heater to “on” or “off” with the load control device based onthe operational instructions received from the one or more processorsvia the computer network.
 12. The method of claim 11 further comprisingdisplaying a user interface on the load control device.
 13. The methodof claim 11 wherein the operational control instructions received fromthe one or more processors are based at least in part on the temperaturemeasurements associated with the space conditioned by the plug-in airconditioner or the plug-in portable heater and based at least in part onmeasurements of outside temperatures obtained from the at least oneother source.
 14. The method of claim 11 in which the plug-in airconditioner is mounted through an opening in a building envelope. 15.The method of claim 11 in which the plug-in portable heater is a spaceheater.
 16. The method of claim 11 further comprising measuring with theload control device, the temperature of the space conditioned by theplug-in air conditioner or plug-in portable heater with the load controldevice.
 17. The method of claim 11 in which the load control devicefurther measures at least one of the group consisting of electricalcurrent, and voltage passing through the load control device.
 18. Themethod of claim 11 in which the load control device further sensesoccupancy of the space conditioned by the plug-in air conditioner orplug-in portable heater.
 19. The method of claim 11 further comprisingpairing the load control device with a mobile device.
 20. A method forcontrolling plug-in air conditioners and plug-in heaters comprising:connecting at a first location, at least one load control device to afirst electrical outlet and to a plug-in air conditioner or plug-inportable heater, the load control device located inside the spaceconditioned by the plug-in air conditioner or plug-in portable heater,the load control device further configured to control whether theplug-in air conditioner or the plug-in portable heater is “on” or “off”,the load control device comprising at least a microprocessor that isconfigured to communicate over a computer network; receivingtemperatures associated with the space conditioned by the plug-in airconditioner or the plug-in portable heater at one or more processorsremotely located from the first location; receiving at the one or moreprocessors, measurements of outside temperatures associated with thefirst location from at least one other source; generating theoperational control instructions based at least in part on the locationof a mobile device; receiving at the load control device, theoperational control instructions from the one or more processors via thecomputer network; and turning the plug-in air conditioner or the plug-inportable heater to “on” or “off” with the load control device based onthe operational instructions received from the one or more processorsvia the computer network.